NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As spot gold trades at $1295 and the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD) trades at $125, we once again hear all the experts tell us how smart it is to have gold in our portfolio. May I remind you that they were also saying these things when it was trading at $1900? This is more than 30% off the highs and it happened amid the biggest quantitative easing we've ever seen.
We'll continue to see the sale of "double golden eagle" gold coins on television ads. The people that sell those coins at that mark-up play on the fears of Americans across the U.S. and should be jailed, but that's a different article all together. "We've just found a secret stash of 3,000 of them locked untouched in a basement, and you can buy 300 of them if you call now!" I believe it is usually followed up with a commercial selling ocean front property in Arizona, not sure. Ah, but what a beach!
As we hear statements that inflation is going to drive up the price of gold, we have to remember what's gotten us to this point. Gold was in the $800 area before the financial crisis. Fears of inflation drove investors across the globe to buy the bullion and ETFs that represent it. Now, we haven't seen inflation on the scale it was predicted. In fact, we battled deflation for the first few years of the recovery. Countries that purchased the shiny metal aren't so eager to invest in something that has lost 30% during the biggest quantitative easing ever put into effect.
The U.S. dollar has actually been in a pretty strong uptrend for the last two months. As we complete the exit of the Fed's quantitative easing in October, we still haven't touched 2% inflation. The people that have been wrong all along will point out the costs of very specific items like the price of hogs. The truth is there will be specific items that get inflated based on supply and demand issues forever... The price of hogs does not make inflation.
Within the next six months, it is quite likely that the Fed will allow interest rates higher. What other excuse for gold is there anymore? Russia? Global turmoil has turned investors towards trading the VIX and associated ETFs lately. Before these avenues, gold would have popped on news of Ukraine, Israel or Iraq. That's just not the case anymore.
Frankly, there's no reason to invest in it anymore. It has little to no use. It doesn't react to global turmoil, and it has fallen 30% compared with the U.S. printed money. Given all those circumstances we've seen, you should have been able to expect gold around $2,000. It's a stay away investment. Dare we say it? Fiat currency is more reliable than gold?
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.