By: Adam Feuerstein | 07/14/14 - 11:14 AM EDT(RHHBY) will likely acquire Exelixis (EXEL) in order to capture the full economics of the cancer drug cobimetinib. The two companies announced positive results from a phase III study of "cobi" in melanoma this morning.
Question now is when does $RHHBY take out $EXEL ? Just a question of timing at this point. — David Miller (@AlpineBV_Miller) July 14, 2014I spoke with him, asking him to elaborate on why he views Exelixis as a Roche takeover target. Miller believes the combination of cobi and Roche's already approved Zelboraf will become the standard of care, first-line therapy for BRAF-mutated melanoma patients. Zelboraf, on its own, is already a $400 million drug worldwide for Roche. The combination with cobi will be priced between $16,000 and $20,000 per month, or a premium to the $16,000 per month GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) charges for a similar but inferior combination therapy, Tafinlar and Mekinist, Miller believes. Using the high end of the price range, Miller forecasts combi/Zelboraf in melanoma represents a $600 million to $1 billion revenue opportunity for Roche in the U.S. alone.
@CMATTsays Somewhere over a $1B. Depends on the timing. Cheaper before cabo HCC/RCC data. Much more expensive after $EXEL — David Miller (@AlpineBV_Miller) July 14, 2014Exelixis' current market cap stands at approximately $680 million.
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