CHICAGO (TheStreet) -- A veteran airline analyst downgraded shares of United (UAL), saying it will take the carrier years to catch up with its competitors, and recommended that the Dulles hub be closed.
In a scathing report issued Thursday, Imperial Capital analyst Bob McAdoo reduced his rating for United to "in-line" from "outperform," and cut his one-year price target to $47 from $55. At the close Thursday, United shares were at $41.51, down 30 cents for the day, but still up 9.7% year to date.
"From a trading perspective, shares of UAL may continue to move upward as sector sentiment remains positive," McAdoo wrote. However, he said, "United's presentations and published plans (indicate it) will take at least four years to close $2 billion of the gap on American (AAL) and Delta (DAL).
"Importantly, during those four years, Delta and American will be similarly working to increase earnings," he wrote. Year-to-date, United shares are up 10%, while Delta shares are up 43% and American shares are up 76%.McAdoo panned the presentation United executives made at a November investor day event, where they outlined a $2 billion program of cost and revenue improvements.
Moreover, local passengers to Washington generally prefer to fly to US Airways' hub at Reagan National. McAdoo estimated that at best, Dulles flights can get only 20% to 30% of local traffic to Washington. "United would not operate two payroll departments, so we wonder why it would operate two hubs only 211 miles apart?" McAdoo asked. "Both hubs connect traffic from the eastern third of the country to Europe (and) connect north/south domestic traffic. By eliminating the smaller of the two hubs, United would see outsized savings and improved profitability across the entire United route network." (BA) 757s on two-thirds of its flights to Europe. "Typically a carrier would place its largest aircraft in its largest hub, especially if the hub were slot-limited," McAdoo wrote. "By upgauging these aircraft, we believe United would be able to move traffic currently connecting to Europe over IAD to EWR. "United's cuts in Cleveland set the standard for whether to unwind the Washington Dulles hub," McAdoo noted. In Cleveland, he said, 17 markets with less than 10 local passengers per flight and 16 markets with generally 11 to 30 local passengers per flight were eliminated as of next month. Using the same metrics in Dulles, 65 spoke routes would be cut.
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