We Knew First-Quarter GDP Report Would Be Ugly, but It Was Hideous
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- We knew the government's last number on first-quarter economic growth would be ugly -- and it surely was. But buried in the details of short-term miasma is some sure-to-be-overlooked information that points to a brighter tomorrow.
The economy shrank at a 2.9% annual rate between January and March, mostly because of the now-infamous polar vortex that took over most of the eastern U.S. beginning, oh, about last August (not that I'm bitter). Consumer spending was much worse than previously reported, rising at a 1.0% clip instead of the 3.1% the Commerce Department said last month. Gross private investment fell at the same 11.7% annual clip reported in May, and government spending dipped at a 0.8% rate.
The more interesting part was the distribution in the decline in corporate profits. While relatively little coverage will focus on this part of the report, it's the part that may matter most when all is said and done.
The government said profits of financial corporations decreased $52.6 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $75.4 billion, compared with an increase of $19.5 billion. This increase primarily reflected increases in utilities industries, durable-goods manufacturing industries, and information industries, partly offset by lower profits in some non-durable goods manufacturing.The government also noted that unit profits fell because of rising unit labor costs. Now, this might get the inflation hawks yelling that the Federal Reserve should hike interest rates sooner than we expect. They're wrong, and here's why. First, if profits are really moving into the productive sectors of the economy from the financial sector, this is a good thing. There's little doubt the rewards of the capitalist game became overconcentrated in finance over the 25 years before 2008, with disastrous results. After all, Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) each created more jobs in the last decade than the entire U.S. securities industry. (I compared their filings, which report the number of workers, to Labor Department data on securities employment). And you can say that those two are outliers. But it's also true that the sum of Expedia (EXPE) and Salesforce.com (CRM), much more prosaic names, also created more jobs than all the king's buyout groups and all the king's hedge funds. If the model where Wall Street gets the lion's share of the economy's rewards is really on its way down or out, that is a good thing. Other industries will do more with it. That it may be happening with little to no nudge from policymakers is even better.
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