Watch Out! Complacency Dramatically Ups Your ETF Portfolio Risk
NEW YORK (ETF Expert) -- In the history of the National Basketball League finals, no team had ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. Miami Heat believers explained that records were meant to be broken. Lebron James asked, "Why not us?"
To the dismay of some basketball fanatics, the San Antonio Spurs disposed of the Heat in the fifth game. History did not crumble; rather, it went with the odds. Equally compelling, a relative unknown in Kawhi Leonard earned the Most Valuable Player award for his play in the series; in this instance, history went against the high likelihood that an established superstar would hoist the trophy.
Along these lines, the S&P 500 has traded above its 200-day moving average for 395 trading sessions. That has never occurred in the history of the heralded benchmark. The previous record? 385 trading days in the mid-1990s. Granted, it may be difficult to quantify how improbable the occurrence but there's simply no denying the extraordinary length of time that the bull market uptrend for U.S. large caps has remained intact.
A bull-bear spread of adviser sentiment of 45.1 that is higher than previous market tops of 42 in both October 2007 and April 2011? Complacency.
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