Cramer: Old Patterns Aren't Holding Up
NEW YORK (Real Money) -- So many moves shouldn't be happening. How can so many oil companies trade at highs at the same time as so many consumer companies? How can the utilities hit all-time highs when the techs are screaming? These runs just aren't supposed to be happening simultaneously.
I keep coming back to the inanity that perhaps the whole market is too cheap. Or, more precisely, in the words of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, the stock market "isn't vastly overvalued."
How else, however, can you explain why warring segments can both go up at once? Technology is a huge cyclical industry and when it is on an upswing, utilities must come down. They have to. Unless you build a case that the Utes are more industrial plays, and I am not buying that. Too simplistic. They have an industrial component, but they are rate plays.
Oil is a tax on the economy. When oil goes up the staples, which consume vast amounts of oil in making and moving goods, should see their stocks go lower. But they aren't.So, back to Yellen's wisdom. Maybe we just haven't gone to extremes yet, extremes that make it so any of these sectors is set up for a huge fall and if they do go there -- like biotech and software-as-service stocks did in March until May -- then we will see a swoon. In other words, the fact that the Nasdaq 100 is back to where it was in November 2000 means nothing but that that year was aberrant. Different stocks. Different era. False comparison. Now I know a lot of people who have been around for a while know that these relationships don't make sense. But if you haven't been around, maybe you just say they have nothing to do with each other and that kind of relational thinking is just old fashioned. I can imagine, though, the more veteran a hedge fund manager you are, the more likely you are to simply short one of these two pairs, betting that one has to be "wrong." But it seems that as long as there are earnings per share and as long as the company has growth and as long as the company can beat the numbers, it's going higher no matter what cohort it is in. So the only conclusion I can reach is that paying attention to the old patterns is a costly mistake. They aren't holding up. Just one more nutty thing about the stock market in 2014. Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 6:46 a.m. EDT on Real Money on June 19.
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