This Day On The Street
Continue to site
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Three ETF Investments for Persistent Euro Weakness

NEW YORK (ETF Expert) -- One of the key themes that I presented at the start of 2014 was the notion that capital would begin shifting abroad. Attractive valuations compared to U.S. equities, ongoing stimulative measures in Europe as well as "carry trade" funding of higher-yielding assets contributed to several high conviction purchases.

Chief among them? iShares MSCI New Zealand (ENZL). While smaller nations often get overlooked when it comes to investor asset allocation, I argued that New Zealand presented a unique opportunity to participate in one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world. In addition, iShares MSCI New Zealand did not depend largely on global demand of basic materials the way that iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) did. In fact, ENZL still represents respectable diversification across a wide range of economic segments, including health care, consumer goods and industrials.

Fortunately, the thesis extended beyond impressive economic fundamentals and desirable diversification. Currency traders worldwide sell low-yielding currencies to raise capital for acquisitions of higher-yielding currencies and higher-appreciating assets. At the beginning of the year, I anticipated that Abenomics in Japan would further erode the yen such that institutional traders would sell (or short) Japan's currency to acquire the New Zealand dollar and/or buy New Zealand equities.

In truth, that may or may not have happened. While the yen dropped precipitously in 2013, it has actually snapped back a bit in 2014. The Japanese yen still remains low enough for borrowers to keep acquiring higher-yielding currencies and/or funds like ENZL. However, if the yen manages to move significantly higher and the Bank of Japan cannot "walk it back," institutional traders may be forced to dump New Zealand stocks in a flash to avoid paying bank loans on an appreciating yen.

That said, the fortunes of iShares MSCI New Zealand are not tied solely to the fate of Japan's currency. As it turns out, New Zealand recently hiked rates for the third consecutive time in 2014 on bullish expectations for its economy. Its official cash rate is now 3.25%. In contrast, the European Central Bank recently slashed its overnight lending rate and decided to charge other banks money (i.e. negative deposit rate) for storing cash in ECB vaults. Consequently, the euro hit a 13-month low against the "kiwi" (New Zealand dollar).

What does this mean? It implies that institutions will now borrow the euro to fund purchases of the kiwi for that 3.25% yield. Even better, investors may borrow the euro to purchase New Zealand equities. For ETF enthusiasts, funds like ENZL offer the added attraction of a 3.5% annual dividend. Many of my clients continue to own this ETF, benefiting from year-to-date gains of 15%.

1 of 2

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
Submit an article to us!
SYM TRADE IT LAST %CHG
AAPL $130.28 0.00%
FB $81.53 0.00%
GOOG $565.06 0.00%
TSLA $218.42 0.00%
YHOO $44.52 0.00%

Markets

DOW 18,080.14 +21.45 0.12%
S&P 500 2,117.69 +4.76 0.23%
NASDAQ 5,092.0850 +36.0220 0.71%

Partners Compare Online Brokers

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs