NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Friday ended the trading week with a bang. The S&P 500 has been up 10 out of the last 12 trading days. One all-time high after another. Is the any stopping this runaway market? Will it ever come down?
I am being facetious. The S&P 500 closed up 8.98 points at 1949.44 while the DJIA finished higher at 16924, up 88.17 points. The Nasdaq was up 25.17 at 4321.40 while the Russell 2000 index closed up 11.27 points at 1165.21.
Is there any short hedge funds out there that have not covered their short positions? It appears that we are getting very close to the top. Capitulation of these short hedge funds seems to be near. What else would be driving this market higher? It is certainly not the fundamentals of the economy. Although, most Wall Street pundits would want you to believe that.
An interesting bit of information is the housing market. April existing home sales by region shows the Northeast down 6.3%, the Midwest down 9.6%, the South down3.5%, and the West down 10%. These are year over year percentages. So housing is certainly not in a bullish state.Existing homes inventory ramped up 16% in April versus March. The Federal Reserve trying to reflate a bubble is just not working. The (VIX.X) closed at 10.73. It has never closed below 10 in history. The Fear/Greed Index closed at 86 on Friday, up 35 points in one week. This is a contrary indicator that is showing extreme greed. So the thought of the Federal Reserve behind this massive equity bubble is very real. Quantitative easing that started out as a discretionary economic policy is now a deficit financing necessity. The taper the Fed is now undertaking should be coming to an end. We used to rely on foreign financiers to fund our borrowing, but those days are gone. The buying of our Treasuries is down from $800 billion a year to $100 billion in a couple years. Foreigners are buying about $10 billion a month in Treasuries. Deficit financing for the government is about $40 billion a month.
The Fed needs to pick up the slack but when it slashed its buying to $25 billion it opened up a demand deficit for Treasuries. If they continue to taper, the Treasury market could find itself reeling. I expect to hear talk about more QE. My own internal algorithm indicators have this market at extreme levels. Levels that I have not seen in quite sometime. The bubble is real right now. I expect a pop next week. I am showing a ratio of 95:1 for large-cap stocks with extreme overbought conditions versus extreme oversold. That is beyond ridiculous. It is now comical. On Friday I added to my Broadcom (BRCM) short position along with Jetblue (JBLU) short. Both are extreme overbought. I also added to Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3 (SOXS) long. I began to cover my AmerisourceBergen (ABC) short. At the time of publication the author was short BRCM, ABC and JBLU and long SOXS and ABX. This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff. >>Read more: Why You May Want to Consider European Index ETFs
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