This Day On The Street
Continue to site
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Don't Panic Over the IMF's Lowered China Economic Growth Forecast

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- So are you a 7.5% China growth person or a 7% China growth person?

Economists at the World Bank predict 7.5% growth in China next year, while their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund have lowered their 2015 forecast to 7%.

It seems like a high-quality problem for China to have.

It is very easy to become obsessed with the precise level of GDP growth in China and write commentary based on the direction of estimates, particularly because China's current five year economic plan -- which runs until 2015 -- is based on an assumption of 7% annual growth.

What increasingly matters for China, however, is what is happening underneath the headline number.

All economies need to get stronger and more efficient all the time. Economists talk about something called "supply-side reform," which basically means ensuring workers, businesses and even government can accomplish more via more education or training, lower taxes or even a shrinkage in the size and influence of government. Supply-side reform is hard enough in America, but the challenge in China is much larger given where its economy is coming from.

And this leads us to the key insight of the report from the International Monetary Fund.

The Chinese government has proved itself very adept at boosting the local economy if required, but it has tended to do this in two ways: boosting supply in the housing market or easing credit conditions.

It could quite easily use these tools again and be successful at boosting short-term growth to more than 7%.

This would be the wrong thing to do, however. China's housing market is already struggling with overcapacity, and easing credit conditions would threaten a further expansion of China's shadow banking system.

To its credit, the IMF points this out, saying "transitioning to a sustainable growth path" means potentially lower Chinese growth levels in the short term and that "pressing ahead with ... reforms" is the key for future growth beyond this year.

So do not worry about the lower IMF Chinese growth estimate. If there is anything to worry about it is the continued commitment and willingness of China's political leaders to the necessary supply-side reforms.

So far they are holding firm in their commitment to reform. These changes will continue to overhang the Chinese growth numbers and, this year or next, further reductions in the growth estimates are quite possible, but this is for the best, for China and for global economy.

>>Read More: Broadcom, Walgreen and DuPont Are 3 Buys Near 52-Week Highs

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Options Profits

Our options trading pros provide over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.

Product Features:
  • Actionable options commentary and news
  • Real-time trading community
SYM TRADE IT LAST %CHG
AAPL $121.30 -0.87%
FB $94.01 -1.26%
GOOG $625.61 -1.10%
TSLA $266.15 -0.24%
YHOO $36.67 -2.00%

Markets

Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,689.86 -56.12 -0.32%
S&P 500 2,103.84 -4.79 -0.23%
NASDAQ 5,128.2810 -0.5040 -0.01%

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs