Watch European Central Bank for Opportunities to Make Money on Policy Moves
For economists, this is a recipe for the value of the euro to fall relative to the value of the dollar.
Since the ECB telegraphed this move, the hedge funds positioned themselves accordingly.
The early results: the euro plunged to a four-month low against the dollar after the ECB announced the package, falling 0.7% to $1.3503 from above $1.36 before the central bank's rate cuts.
People are making money off of this change in central bank policy, in short.I believe that Mr. Draghi could make the same argument that Mr. Geithner made in the earlier instance. The ECB does not have the goal of helping hedge funds to make billions of dollars. The ECB is just trying to prevent the eurozone from falling into deflation. If some benefit from such a move, then so be it!
Investors, keep your eyes open for such opportunities. They are more frequent than you might guess. Two final comments on the ECB's actions. First: psychologically, I believe that the ECB had to act in order to keep European financial markets relatively stable. Stock prices rose after the rate changes were announced. This is not unlike how Geithner saw his responsibility during the Great Recession. My second point is this. I don't believe that these actions or even moving to a policy of quantitative easing will get the eurozone economy growing more rapidly in the near term. I see the dilemma being faced by officials in the eurozone as one of a major economic transition, a transition that will take time and concerted effort. Many members of the eurozone need to reform their governments, substantially reduce corruption, adjust labor union power, and restructure industries. This is going to take much effort, much time and much pain. It is not altogether sure that the European Union can pull it off. But, for now, the monetary policy of the ECB is the only stabilizing influence in the European markets. It must act, even if it is only keeping the flood from spilling over the dyke. >>Read More: How Apple iPhone's Ad Hints at Its Next Big Thing The Expected Rise and Inevitable Fall of MannKind GM Unveils Ignition Switch Internal Probe Details Clorox Insider Trading or More Golf Course Chatter Among the Big Dogs? At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.
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