Incessant warnings of complacency, especially when unattached to a specific, confirmable risk scenario, introduce their own sort of risk: the risk of losing money from paying the ongoing costs of ill-timed bearish postures. After the financial crisis, everybody wants to sound smart about this or that looming tail risk, about how unsophisticated investors ignoring the dangers are going to be blindsided by some unknown force. But another risk is that by constantly hedging against some great "unknown unknown", you may mount losses in the form of carry costs and time decay that surpass what you would have lost from even a passive indexing approach.
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