This Day On The Street
Continue to site
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Deadhead Tips; 10-Year Yields: Best of Kass

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.

Among the posts this past week were items on conservative investing and shorting bonds.

Please click here for information about subscribing to RealMoney Pro.

Brokedown Palace

Must Read: Dueling Gurus; Impact of Lower Interest Rates: Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Originally published on Friday, May 16, at 7:26 a.m. EDT.

It's the U.S. stock market's theme song.

Fare you well, my honey
Fare you well, my only true one
All the birds that were singing
Are flown, except you alone

Goin' to leave this Broke-down Palace
On my hands and my knees I will roll, roll, roll
Make myself a bed by the waterside
In my time -- in my time -- I will roll, roll, roll"

-- The Grateful Dead, "Brokedown Palace"

If the U.S. stock market were a song, it would be The Grateful Dead's "Brokedown Palace."

>>Read: Buffetts Berkshire Builds Verizon Stake, No IBM Buying Spree

More important, as it relates to your own investments:

  • Err on the side of conservatism.
  • Maintain above-average cash balances.
  • Be diversified across company and industry lines.
  • Rationally consider reward vs. risk in every investment you make and holding you have.
  • Ignore those pundits/advisers/commentators who are self-confident in view. The only certainty is the lack of certainty (these days).
  • Consider being a contrarian who ignores the market's emotional responses.
  • Avoid the business media's hyperbole.
  • Don't be afraid to buy panic, and use euphoria as an opportunity to sell.
  • Seek investment freedom by doing your own homework.
  • Read every word written by Warren Buffett. It is useful to go back to his old annual letters to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A - Get Report)  investors.
  • Spend time on your investments; don't take short cuts -- particularly after a near trebling in the S&P 500 since March 2009.
  • There is a place for speculative investments in your portfolio -- also for conservative investments.
  • Invest within your means -- develop and stand by your own specific risk profile and investment/trading time frames.
  • And always remember that you worked hard to earn your investment capital.

"So we are pretty convinced that we don't want to play huge stadiums unless we play well."

-- Jerry Garcia.

At the time of publication, Kass had no positions in the investments mentioned.

10-Year Yield Watch

Originally published on Friday, May 16, at 9:50 a.m. EDT.

>>Read: Hungry for Yield? Feed Off These Funds

While I remain of the view that rates will climb much higher in the fullness of time, in my "15 Surprises for 2014" I suggested that the yield on the 10-year U.S. note would be in a range of 2.5% to 3.0% in 2014. (Note: I also said that bonds would outperform stocks this year.)

>>Read: 401(k) Mistakes That Can Cost You

In April 67 out of 67 economists surveyed saw higher interest rates. The surprising rate drop of 55 basis points (measured by the 10-year U.S. note yield) has turned a number of bond bears into bond bulls.

I have written recently on why rates have dropped so conspicuously.

With the 10-year yield at 2.5%, I believe it is now a perfect cyclical and secular time to short bonds.

I am acting accordingly.

At the time of publication, Kass was long TBT and TBF and short TLT.


Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free


Chart of I:DJI
DOW 16,014.38 -12.67 -0.08%
S&P 500 1,852.21 -1.23 -0.07%
NASDAQ 4,268.7630 -14.99 -0.35%

Our Tweets

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs