A Market Reality Check

01/23/01 - 10:33 AM EST

Jim Cramer

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It doesn't really matter what Merck (MRK Quote - Cramer on MRK - Stock Picks) says, does it? It doesn't matter, because Merck represents the flip side of a lot of the junk that is going up now. It is the high-quality, bulletproof defensive name in a market that thinks defensive names will cause you to underperform.

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Get in the heads of these portfolio managers. They know they have to sell these defensive stocks when the Fed eases and put the money to work in the 3Ms (MMM Quote - Cramer on MMM - Stock Picks) of the world. In fact, I bet right now there are institutions swapping Merck for 3M (an Action Alert name) on a one-for-one-dollar trade. (Yes, that stuff actually happens. Those who aren't swapping Merck for 3M are swapping Johnson & Johnson (JNJ Quote - Cramer on JNJ - Stock Picks) for 3M!)

I know this kind of stuff shouldn't happen. If I owned Merck I certainly wouldn't sell it now, because at some point this year we will be through with pumping up the economy and Merck will find its sea legs and come right back. But I also recognize that the cycle is this huge bulldozer that takes down great oaks like Merck and Johnson & Johnson without any thought as it clears the way for the financial, retail and, soon, cyclical interstate. That's just the way it is.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for the network of TSC sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Nonstaff contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to james.cramer@thestreet.com.
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