You need reasons why tech stocks are holding in, despite miserable earnings and crummy outlooks? I'll give you 1.89 trillion reasons. That's how much money is sloshing around on the sidelines, itching to get in the market.
And I'll notch it up. Right now that money, which is at a record level, gets a pretty good return. It won't by the time the Fed is easing. That's why this morning, when I sit and look at the downbeat estimates that
Texas Instruments(TXN Quote - Cramer on TXN - Stock Picks) is delivering, I want to buy it, not sell it. Texas Instruments is levered to the cell phone business and I think thatbusiness is getting better, not worse.
That's why I believe a stock like
Computer Associates(CA Quote - Cramer on CA - Stock Picks), a disappointer of late, gets legs today because, well, it is a big-cap name with lots of shares outstanding that is down a lot from its high with light at the end of the tunnel. I am sure the mutual funds will go nuts for that one.
It is why I am not deterred by
Cypress Semiconductor's (CY Quote - Cramer on CY - Stock Picks) ugly compares next quarter. Things will be better six months form now. And it is why
EMC (EMC Quote - Cramer on EMC - Stock Picks) is probably a buy up to 85 this morning because it is one of a handful of stories that seems downright bulletproof right now. (
AOL(AOL Quote - Cramer on AOL - Stock Picks),
Micromuse (MUSE Quote - Cramer on MUSE - Stock Picks) and
Brocade (BRCD Quote - Cramer on BRCD - Stock Picks) being the only other bullet-proofers I know out there.)
I know I hated moments like this at the hedge fund. I would be betting that Texas Instruments gets hit because it was, after all, pretty crummy -- nah, make that real crummy. I would probably be short the darned thing. And I would be sitting at my turret hoping that the sellers would materialize. But the potential sellers are being inundated with money right now, courtesy of the cash build. They are not looking for things to SELL, they are looking for things to BUY.
Not only that, but the textbooks say there is something to sell. It's the homebuilders and the drug stocks, as the former have already taken off (they have been down for three straight days) and the latter are just plain too defensive for an easing environment. In the end, I would have to come in and buy my beautiful Texas Instruments short, maybe making a few bucks. Maybe making nothing at all. Because nobody wants to sell something when the money's pouring in, and, take my word for it, it is pouring in.
Random musings: Want a battleground? Check out the tussle between the bears that report to
Herb and the bulls, notably Art Samberg,
regarding Acxiom (ACXM Quote - Cramer on ACXM - Stock Picks). Wow, is this a tough one to draw a bead on as Art's made me a ton of money, and so has Herb! My take: Go to neutral. Too hard. Remember, that's often my tactic because there are enough good stories in the naked stock city that I don't have to settle for the disputed ones.
Jim Cramer
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