James Dennin, Kapitall: Could these 7 rallying Indian stocks keep their momentum through election season, or do they portend correction?
The world's largest election in history was already going to be a pretty important market event, but the stakes are climbing higher and higher as India gets closer to selecting its new leadership.
The stock market there has performed exceptionally so far this year. The benchmark Sensex Index has beaten all the other Asian markets in 2014, hitting an
all-time high last week. The Rupee has recovered from a dismal performance last year as well causing the
IMF to boost India's outlook.
Read more of this Kapitallist's take on Indian stocks.
Much of the optimism there surrounds the likely election of Narendra Modi, widely seen as the "pro-business" candidate and a more experienced alternative to his primary rival Rahul Gandhi, the grandson of Indira Ghandi.
On the other hand, there's also a sizeable chance bulls have
gotten ahead of themselves
For one, Modi is hardly a scandal-free candidate.
, possibly the world's most important authority when determining what exactly constitutes a pro-business candidates, has refused to endorse him.
His critics don't worry about his economics, however; Modi has a strong nationalist bent that has some concerned. During his tenure in office there was a riot in his district where nearly 2,000 Muslims were allegedly beaten or killed.
Still, Indian stock performance is a telling measure of how the market will respond to a Modi victory. India badly needs many of the economic reforms that he has promised. But India's election will also be the largest of all time, in a country with infamously bad polling.
In the last 2 major elections, most pollers projected the
outcome of what eventually transpired. In 2004 election day chaos caused one of the largest single-day selloffs in India's history.
Is the market right to start pricing in Modi's election, or are Indian stocks getting ahead of themselves? Use the list below to begin your own analysis and let us know what you think in the comments.