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Capitulation? Or a Bounce to Sell Into Now?

Stocks in this article: VIX.X^GSPCQQQIWMIBBTLT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Flat. That is how I am positioned over the weekend. I see no edge in either direction at this juncture. The short term trend is down, but we are getting oversold based on some measures. This is a market for those who embrace volatility and not for those looking for longer term trends.

Quick one to two-day trades make the most sense until a clear trend presents itself.

Last week in my piece "This Is Not Your 2013 Snapback Market Anymore," I wrote:

To simplify, the path of least resistance right now is down. Don't over think it. Yes we will see bounces, especially when we get oversold, but until the path of least resistance turns back up, using 2013's playbook will likely be a losers bet. This is no longer your 2013 BTD (Buy the Dip) market. This is your 2014 "failed breakout" STR (Sell the Rip) market.

Today I explore those ideas more, via technical charts.

Assessing the Current Situation 

Since the end of the first Fed induced Quantitative Easing (QE) program in March of 2010, all QE endings have been accompanied by volatility measured by the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX.X). Thus far, this latest taper is proving no different, but also could go a lot further to match more closely the volatility levels reached in 2010 and 2011.



We could be considered oversold based on 20-day new lows on the S&P 500 Index   if we were using 2013's playbook. But looking back three years, oversold can get much worse -- as it did in 2011 and 2012.

Furthermore, the market often takes a couple of spikes back-to-back before finding a bottom (as denoted by the red lines in the chart below).

Similarly, we are nearly at oversold readings because of S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day moving average -- if we're going by the 2013 playbook. But the S&P isn't as oversold when measured against a longer period of time. 

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