Strategists' Scorecard: Four of Five Forecasters See 20%-Plus Returns in 2001

Last year wasn't just tough for investors; market strategists didn't fare too well, either.

In fact, none of the top gurus we tracked got the S&P 500 right. Of five market strategists we examined -- all considered heavy hitters on Wall Street -- all were fairly bullish going into the year, calling for gains that ranged from 6%-11%. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, the index fell 10.1%.

With that in mind, TSC is starting an annual strategists' scorecard to keep track of the forecasts made by some of the most influential market strategists on Wall Street.

We're kicking off this year's installment by taking a look at year 2000 forecasts and seeing how the big guns fared. We're also including forecasts for 2001 -- and the theme of Y2K1 is: think big. All five strategists surveyed see double-digit returns, and four of them see gains north of 20%.

In December, we'll check in to see how those forecasts are faring as the market heads into the home stretch. In January 2002, we'll recap 2001 and again look ahead to the coming year. Lather, rinse, repeat.

If At First You Don't Succeed
Forecasts for 2000
Strategist	Firm	S&P 500 Forecast for 2000	Projected Gain
Joseph Battipaglia	Gruntal	1625	10.6%
Christine Callies	Merrill Lynch	1560	6.2
Abby J. Cohen	Goldman Sachs	1575	7.2
Thomas Galvin	Credit Suisse First Boston	1600	8.9
Byron Wien	Morgan Stanley Dean Witter	1615	9.9
Actual Performance of S&P 500
		S&P 500, Dec. 31, 2000	Actual
		1320.28	-10.1%
Source: The Strategists

...Try, Try Again.
Forecasts for 2001
Strategist	Firm	S&P 500 Forecast for 2001	Projected Gain
Joseph Battipaglia	Gruntal	1650	25%
Christine Callies	Merrill Lynch	1625*	23.1
Abby J. Cohen	Goldman Sachs	1650	25
Thomas Galvin	Credit Suisse First Boston	1600	21.2
Byron Wien	Morgan Stanley Dean Witter	1500	13.6
		S&P 500, Dec. 31, 2001
		??
*Recently Revised from 1720 on Jan. 8 Source: The Strategists