PHLX Housing Sector Index HGX (202.31, down 0.5% YTD) tracks 19 housing-related stocks including 11 of the 12 homebuilders we have been profiling. On March 19 I wrote, Is It Time to Sell Homebuilder Stocks? The message is that the housing market has peaked at 60% of potential with the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market index below the neutral reading of 50. The most recent reading on single-family housing starts was below 600,000 when the potential is 1.1 to 1.2 million. Housing is associated with consumer sentiment and all readings have been below the neutral range of 90 to 110 since the end of 2007. This indicates that the message from Main Street is that Federal Reserve policy is not working.
The housing index continues to trade back and forth around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from its mid-2005 high to the March 2009 low with this level at 202.05. The weekly chart stays negative given a close today below its five-week MMA at 201.67, otherwise this chart is neutral.
On March 10 I wrote, Five Years from the Bottom: Keep an Eye on Housing and Banks and this post summarizes the recovery of the banking system. Upcoming earnings for banks could be problematic as it gets tougher to decrease reserves for losses. Some banks will be underwater on securities held for trading. And, the mortgage market has slowed to a trickle.
America's Community Bankers Index ABAQ (245.73, up 3.4% YTD) set its 2014 intraday high at 249.50 on March 21 the day the bigger banks passed their stress tests. The weekly chart stays positive with a close today above its five-week MMA at 239.00. This index is above its 61.8% retracement at 236.33.KBW Banking Index BKX (72.69, up 5.0%) set its 2014 intraday high at 73.90 on March 21 the day 18 of 19 banks in this index, that were subjected to the Federal Reserve stress tests, passed their tests. The weekly chart stays positive given a close today above its five-week MMA at 70.66. The banking index is above the 50% retracement at 69.37 but below the 61.8% retracement at 81.54. The Dow Industrial Average (16573, flat YTD) set an all-time intraday high at today's open above the 16604.15 high set on April 3. The weekly chart remains positive given a close today above its five-week MMA at 16283. Monthly and semiannual value levels are 16297 and 16245 with a quarterly pivot at 16462 and semiannual risky level at 16860. Our annual value levels lag at 14835 and 13467. The S&P 500 (1888.8, up 2.2% YTD) set an all-time high intraday high at today's open above the 1893.80 high set on April 3. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1854.0. Quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1853.5, 1797.3 and 1764.4 with a monthly risky level, now a pivot at 1895.6. Annual value levels lag at 1539.1 and 1442.1. The Nasdaq (4238, up 1.5% YTD) is between its 50-day and 21-day SMAs at 4224 and 4267. The weekly chart stays negative on a close today below its five-week MMA at 4223, otherwise this chart is neutral. Quarterly and semiannual value levels are 4039, 3930 and 3920 with its multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 set on March 7, and monthly risky level at 4446. Annual value levels lag at 3471 and 3063. The Nasdaq 100 (3638, up 1.3% YTD) is between its 50-day and 21-day SMAs at 3624 and 3654. The weekly chart stays negative on a close today below its five-week MMA at 3621, otherwise this chart is neutral. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3458 and 3424 with its multiyear intraday high at 3738.32 set on March 6, and monthly risky level at 3834. The Dow Transportation Average (7783, up 3.8% YTD) set an all-time intraday high at 7715.91 on April 3. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at 7469. Quarterly and semiannual value levels are 7407, 7376 and 7245 with a weekly pivot at 7531 and a monthly risky level at 7812. Annual value levels lag at 6249 and 5935.
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