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14 Indices Tell the Stock Market Story

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Dow Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Dow Transportation Average set all-time intraday highs on Thursday, and today's opening levels are new highs for at least the Dow and S&P.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 lag their highs, which were set on March 6 and March 4, respectively. The message is that investors are shifting asset allocation from the momentum stocks in the Nasdaq and the more risky small cap names, into the brand name industrials, transports and components of the S&P 500.

On March 23 I wrote, Pop! Goes the Momentum Bubble that showed the popping bubbles in (AMZN - Get Report), Linkedin (LNKD), Netflix (NFLX), Priceline (PCLN) and Tesla (TSLA). This defines the drag in the Nasdaq.

Some technicians say that new highs for Transports and Industrials is a Dow Theory buy signal. That's a pre-tech theory! Today, the more important index is the PHLX Semiconductor Index which set a multiyear intraday high on Thursday. The message is that almost every consumer product contains some sort of computer chip, and thus strength in semiconductors. I covered this theme on March 25 in, Semiconductors Are Leading the Market, where I profiled the 24 semiconductor stocks in the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH).

Today's "Crunching the Numbers'"tables profiles the 14 indices that tell these market stories and more. The first table provides the five major moving averages and stochastic readings. The second table provides the value levels at which to buy on weakness and the risky levels at which to sell on strength.

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iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ($107.74, up 6.5% YTD) has outperformed the S&P 500 gain of just 2.2%. What some investors still don't understand is that the bond ETF trades like a stock and its components are U.S. Treasuries with maturity dates longer than 20 years. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close today below the five-week modified moving average at $107.60 after trading above its 200-week simple moving average at $109.71 on March 31. A monthly value level is $105.94 with an annual risky level at $114.99.

Comex Gold ($1284.6, up 6.8% YTD) has been below its golden cross, defined when its 50-day SMA crossing above its 200-day SMA on March 26 with these averages now at $1,308.5 and $1,296.9. This morning gold is back above its 200-day SMA. The weekly chart is negative given a close today below its five-week MMA at $1307.6. Monthly and quarterly value levels are $1,264.2 and $,1215.7.

Nymex Crude Oil ($100.29, up 1.9% YTD) has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $100.50 all year with a low of $91.24 on Jan. 9 and a 2014 high at $105.22 on March 3. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close today below its five-week MMA at $100.16, otherwise this chart is neutral. The weekly chart also shows that crude oil has been trading back and forth around its 200-week SMA now at $93.71 since mid-2009.

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Chart of I:DJI
DOW 17,773.64 -57.12 -0.32%
S&P 500 2,065.30 -10.51 -0.51%
NASDAQ 4,775.3580 -29.9330 -0.62%

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