The Bull vs. Bear Debate Tug-of-War
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 ended last week with negative weekly charts while Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Dow transports did not. This sets up a new dimension in the bull vs. bear debate as all five major averages need to have negative weekly charts for the bears to win this tug-of-war and pull the bulls into their den.
Monday was the last day of March and the last day of the first quarter and thus we have new monthly and quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels.
The first quarter of 2014 was choppy and volatile influenced by numerous pivots from our proprietary analytics. I described the value levels, pivots and risky levels as a 'tangled bowl of spaghetti' and this type of trading should continue in the second quarter.
We crunched the numbers for the major equity averages and for three related ETFs to help you decide if and when to invest. Note that the monthly and quarterly weekly levels are new and are based upon the March 31 closes. See today's 'Crunching the Numbers' table following these profiles.The Dow Industrial Average (16458) set an all-time intraday high at 16588 on Dec. 31 then traded as low as 15341 on Feb. 5 which was below its 200-day simple moving average. The rebound since then has been as high as 16505 on March 7. The weekly chart remains positive given a close this week above its five-week modified moving average at 16260. Monthly and semiannual value levels are 16297 and 16245 with a quarterly pivot at 16462 and weekly and semiannual risky areas at 16710 and 16860. Our annual value levels lag at 14835 and 13467. (DIA) ($164.24, down 0.7% YTD) set its all-time intraday high at $165.51 on Dec. 31 then traded as low as $153.12 on Feb. 5 which was below its 200-day SMA. The rebound from there was as high as $164.89 on March 7. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at $162.34. Monthly and semiannual value levels are $162.69 and $162.05 with a quarterly pivot at $164.18 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at $166.92 and $167.82. Annual value levels are $148.05 and $134.45. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ($187.01, up 1.3% YTD) traded as low as $173.71 on Feb. 5 then rallied to a new all-time intraday high at $189.02 on March 21. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $185.06. Semiannual value levels are $179.50 and $176.28 with a quarterly pivot at $185.09 and monthly and weekly risky levels at $189.50 and $191.59. Annual value levels are $153.89 and $144.14. PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) ($87.67, up 0.1% YTD) traded as low as $83.39 on Feb. 5 then rallied to a multiyear intraday high at $91.37 on March 7. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $88.16. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are $84.59, $84.58 and $83.64 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $91.44 and $93.75. Annual value levels are $75.42 and $65.34. The bull vs. bear tug-of-war is between the Nasdaq ETF on the bear side, and the Dow 30 ETF and S&P 500 ETF on the bull side. Weekly closes below the five-week MMAs at $88.16 on QQQ Trust, $162.34 the Dow ETF and $185.06 on S&P ETF favors the bear, above all three favors the bull. To summarize in terms of the major equity averages closes this week below the five-week MMAs at 16260 Dow Industrials, 1850.8 S&P 500, 4215 Nasdaq, 7448 Dow Transports and 1168.78 Russell 2000 favors the bears, above all favors the bulls.
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