Let's Start a Bull vs. Bear Market Debate!
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Two weeks ago four of the five major equity averages set new all-time or multiyear highs and the exception was the Dow Industrial Average which stalled on Dec. 31 after setting its all-time high at 16588.25.
The other major averages continued higher with the Russell 2000 setting its all-time high at 1212.82 on March 4 then the Nasdaq set its multiyear high at 4371.71 on March 6. The S&P 500 and the Dow transportation average set their all-time highs at 1883.57 and 7627.44 respectively on March 7.
This morning the major averages recouped some of last week's losses under the influence of quarterly and semiannual pivots as the 'tangled bowl of spaghetti' continues. Friday's closes were below my semiannual pivot at 16245 on Dow Industrials and my quarterly pivot at 4274 on the Nasdaq, but Friday's close on the Russell 2000 was above its quarterly pivot at 1180.35.
This morning the Dow and Nasdaq recaptured their pivots putting the bulls in control as traders and investors wait for the FOMC Statement following Fed Chief Janet Yellen's first FOMC meeting.Meanwhile, don't ignore the messages from bonds, gold and the Dow Utilities Average. The yield on the Treasury 10-year note(2.649%) is down a significant 37.7 basis points year-to-date when most investment strategists have been saying 'avoid bonds'. The price of Comex gold($1372.4) is up $169.90 the Troy ounce year-to-date when Wall Street told investors that gold would continue to decline in 2014. The word from most money managers has been to avoid utilities and the Dow utility average is the leading equity average so far in 2014 up 6.5% as investors seek dividends. Here are my 'buy-and-trade' profiles for three ETFs that trade like bonds, gold and utilities: iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ($108.52) trades like a stock and its components are Treasuries with maturity dates longer than 20 years. This bond ETF is above its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages converging at $107.25, $106.42 and $106.30. The weekly chart has been positive since the first week of 2014 with its five-week modified moving average is at $107.10 with its 200-week SMA reachable at $109.60.
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