NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Post-earnings volatility from 11 retailers shows how difficult it is to pick stocks so far in 2014.
Only two are year-to-day winners: Williams-Sonoma (WSM) up 10.7% and Foot Locker (FL) up 9.8%. Five of the nine losers are down between 10.1% and 32.3%, proving my point that it's tough to pick retail winners when the S&P 500 is down 0.1% for the year to date.
Stocks that miss analysts' earnings estimates or offer cautious guidance get sent to the earnings woodshed, while those that beat estimates take off in moonshots.
Retailers have suffered from a shorter holiday season and a compressed spring season due to the numerous winter storms. Consumers have also been hurt by higher costs of heating their homes, and last Friday we learned 6.9 million workers were cut to part time from full time due to the weather.
Here's the Retail Earnings Recap, then below see my "Crunching the Numbers" table.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) ($12.77, down 11.3% YTD): Reported earnings on March 11 and beat analysts' earnings per share estimates by 1 cent earning 27 cent a share. The stock traded as low as $12.56 on March 12 as full-year earnings were disappointing. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with a close Friday below its five-week modified moving average at $13.95. My monthly value level is $12.15 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $14.51, $17.90 and $19.88.(ARO) ($6.15, down 32.3% YTD): Reported earnings after the closing bell yesterday and missed analysts' EPS estimates by 5 cents reporting a loss of 35 cents a share. The stock opened at $6.15 Friday, setting a new multiyear low. The weekly chart remains neutral with the stock below its five-week MMA at $7.35. My monthly value level is $4.66 with a quarterly risky level at $11.63. Dollar General (DG) ($57.44, down 4.8% YTD): Reported earnings before the opening bell Thursday and matched analysts' EPS estimates earning $1.01 a share. The stock opened below its 50-day simple moving average at $58.60 on Thursday but stayed above its 200-day SMA at $56.63. The weekly chart shifts to neutral with a close Friday below its five-week MMA at $58.48. My annual value level is $45.67 with semiannual, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $59.17, $64.27 and $64.29. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) ($57.11, down 1.7% YTD): Reported earnings on March 11 and beat analysts' EPS estimates by 1 cent earning $1.11 a share. The stock rebounded to as high as $57.85 on March 13, shy of its all-time intraday high at $58.87 set on Jan. 8. The weekly chart stays positive with its five-week MMA at $54.04. My monthly value level is $56.36 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $63.46 and $63.74.
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