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Quick Take: Oil Heading Lower as Ukraine Crisis Cools

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Crude oil has dropped from $105 per barrel to $103 per barrel as tensions ease in Ukraine. Tom Reilly, an options trader at SCS Commodities, told TheStreet's Gregg Greenberg crude oil began spiking with the tension between Ukraine and Russia but backed off as the crisis has cooled. 

However, should tensions increase again, investors can count on crude oil, natural gas and gold all going higher, Reilly said. If nothing new surfaces, crude oil should drift lower to $100 per barrel, where it will likely find support. 

Turning to natural gas, the price action will depend on which part of the world investors are in. 

For instance, Europe is dependent on natural gas from Russia so if conflict arises, natural gas in the region is likely headed higher. However, very little U.S. natural gas is exported to Europe, therefore it is unlikely that U.S. natural gas prices will increase with the same intensity. 

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Specifically, Reilly is looking for the April expiration contract of natural gas to move lower, possibly down to $4.25 per contract, since the worst of the winter weather appears to be behind us. 

He concluded that U.S. natural gas should have a rather "quiet" period of trading through May and June. 

-- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich.

Bret Kenwell currently writes, blogs and also contributes to Robert Weinstein's Weekly Options Newsletter. Focuses on short-to-intermediate-term trading opportunities that can be exposed via options. He prefers to use debit trades on momentum setups and credit trades on support/resistance setups. He also focuses on building long-term wealth by searching for consistent, quality dividend paying companies and long-term growth companies. He considers himself the surfer, not the wave, in relation to the market and himself. He has no allegiance to either the bull side or the bear side.

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