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Key Levels Volatility Related to Ukraine, Waiting for Payrolls

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The two-day, two-way market volatility included new all-time or multiyear highs for three of the five major equity averages on Tuesday. Despite this volatility the underlying trends among the weekly charts for bonds, gold, crude oil and stocks remain the positive with some indices overbought.

Monday's upside for bonds, gold and crude oil did not define upside breakouts and Tuesday's downside stayed above key levels. Monday's downside for the major equity averages did not have closes below all key levels and the highs on Tuesday did not reach any risky levels.

On Tuesday I wrote, Ukraine Is Shaky -- How Can Investors Protect Themselves and Profit?, in which I stated that additional upside for the major equity averages are weekly closes above 16,245 on Dow Industrials, 4274 Nasdaq, 7245 Dow Transports and 1180.35 Russell 2000 after traders and investors react to the February em​ployment data released this Friday. Monday's closes straddled these levels, preventing technical deterioration; while Tuesday's closes were above all of these key levels, a setup for additional upside. (Note that there is not a nearby key level for the S&P 500, hence only four or the five major equity averages are above.)

All eight equity averages in today's 'Crunching the Numbers' table are above all five key moving averages. The Dow Transports which showed declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics after Monday's weakness now has a rising stochastic and will have a positive weekly chart give a close on Friday above its five-week modified moving average at 7331. Events from Ukraine and reaction to Friday's payroll data will key this week's closes.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ($107.39 vs. $101.17 on Dec. 31, up 6.1% YTD) remains above four of the five key moving averages shown in today's table. The weekly chart remains positive with a close on Friday above its five-week modified moving average is at $106.72 with upside to the 200-week simple moving average at $109.49. My quarterly value level is $105.79 with my annual risky levels are $114.99 and $116.12.

Comex Gold ($1,337.9 vs. $1,202.3 on Dec. 31, up 11.3% YTD) also remains above four out of the five key moving averages in today's table. The weekly chart will remain positive but overbought with a close on Friday above its five-week MMA at $1295.5. The upside is to my monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1373.0 and $1385.0. A breakout above these levels makes the 200-week SMA the next upside target at $1491.9.

Nymex Crude Oil ($103.33 vs. $98.42 on Dec.31, up 5% YTD) remains above all five of the key moving averages in today's table and tested its semiannual pivot at $104.97 on Monday with my annual and semiannual risky levels at $107.52 and $110.30. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought with a close on Friday above its five-week MMA at $101.30.

The Dow Industrial Average (16395.88 vs. 16576.66 on Dec. 31, down 1.1% YTD) is above all five key moving averages but has not yet challenged its all-time high set on Dec. 31 at 16588.25. The weekly chart stays positive on a close this week above its five-week MMA at 16163. My annual value levels are 14835 and 13467 with the semiannual pivot at 16245 and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16644, 16761 and 16860.

The S&P 500 (1873.9 vs. 1848.36 on Dec. 31, up 1.4% YTD) set a new all-time intraday high at 1876.23 on Tuesday. The S&P is above all five key moving averages shown in today's table. The weekly chart stays positive on a close this week above its five-week MMA at 1834.3. My semiannual and annual value levels are 1764.4 and 1539.1 with quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1896.0 and 1930.7.

The Nasdaq (4351.97 vs. 4176.59 on Dec. 31, up 4.2% YTD) set a new multiyear intraday high at 4357.21 on Tuesday. The Nasdaq is above all five key moving averages shown in today's table. The weekly chart stays positive but overbought with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 4223. Semiannual and annual value levels are 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with a semiannual pivot at 4274 and a monthly risky level at 4567.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) (3719.93 vs. 3592 on Dec. 31, up 3.6% YTD) set a new multiyear intraday high at 3723.00 on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 is above all five key moving averages shown in today's table. The weekly chart stays positive but overbought with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 3625. Semiannual and annual value levels are 3456, 3458, 3078 and 2669 with a quarterly pivot at 3714 and monthly risky level at 3925.

The Dow Transportation Average (7466 vs. 7401 on Dec. 31, up 0.9% YTD) remains below its all-time intraday high at 7591.43 set on Jan. 23. The weekly chart shifts to positive on a close this week above its five-week MMA at 7331. Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 7245, 7086, 6249 and 5935 with a semiannual pivot at 7376 and monthly risky level at 7802.

The Russell 2000 (1208.65 vs. 1163.60 on Dec. 31, up 3.9% YTD) set a new all-time intraday high at 1212.82 on Tuesday. The small cap index is above all five key moving averages in today's table. The weekly chart stays positive with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 1163.45. My semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39 with a quarterly pivot at 1180.35 and monthly risky level at 1253.12.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX (570.13 vs. 535.03 on Dec. 31, up 6.6% YTD) set a new multiyear intraday high at 570.85 on Tuesday. The SOX is above all five key moving averages in today's table. The weekly chart stays positive but overbought with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 549.24. Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 548.36, 536.98, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with a monthly pivot at 561.69.

The Dow Utility Average (518.57 vs. 490.57 on Dec. 31, up 5.7% YTD) remains below its last multiyear intraday high at 537.86 set back on April 30, 2013. Utilities are above all five key moving averages in today's table. The weekly chart stays positive but overbought with a close this week above its five-week MMA at 509.93. Semiannual, annual and quarterly value levels are 504.74, 497.53 and 496.84 with a monthly pivot at 510.88 and semiannual and annual risky levels at 524.37 and 548.70.

To signal a correction all five major equity averages need to have simultaneous weekly closes below their five-week MMAs shown in today's table with declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics for Dow Industrials, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Transports and Russell 2000.

Remember that my market call for 2014 is that the five major averages will decline to their 200-day SMAs at some point during the year. These moving averages are on the rise and shown in today's table.

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