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GDP Nonevent; For Pete's Sake: Best of Kass

Stocks in this article: TSLASPYNFLXGOOGAMZNPCLN

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12461560/1/jc-penny-is-changing-course.html?kval=dontmissNEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.

Among the posts this past week were items about GDP data and investors vs. traders.

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Parsing the GDP Data
Originally published on Friday, Feb. 28, at 9:17 a.m. EDT.

Fourth-quarter 2013 GDP was revised down from 3.2% to 2.4%, under consensus 2.5%.

The driver of the downward revision was predominantly PCE-related. Personal consumption was revised down from 3.3% to 2.6% (expectations of 2.9%), while the GDP price index was revised up from 1.3% to 1.6%, and the ex-food and energy price index rose by 1.8% vs. 1.5% in third-quarter 2013.

Bottom line: Nothing all that new in this report, and it shouldn't have any meaningful impact on the S&P 500. Looking ahead to first-quarter 2014 GDP, yesterday we starting seeing the beginning of what will likely be a cascade of downward estimate revisions to first-quarter 2014 GDP, due to weather and inventory effects. The current expectation is that the first quarter will come in at 2.1% (Goldman Sachs is at 1.8%) and second quarter will come in at 2.8%. Those estimates are likely to diverge as the first quarter is revised down and the second quarter is revised up. The average, which will be the important thing to look at, is likely to remain constant around the general area of 2.5%, which implies neither an acceleration nor deceleration from recent activity.




Where Have All the Investors Gone?

Originally published on Thursday, Feb. 27, at 7:48 a.m. EDT.

Where have all the investors gone, long time passing?
Where have all the investors gone, long time ago?
Where have all the investors gone?
High-frequency strategies have picked them everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the fundamentalists gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Warren Buffetts gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Lee Coopermans gone?
Gone to quant strategies every one.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the fundamentalists gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Seth Klarmans gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Mario Gabellis gone?
Gone to quant strategies every one
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the investors gone, long time passing?
Where have all the investors gone, long time ago?
Where have all the investors gone?
Gone to investment graveyards, every one.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the Warren Buffetts gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Lee Coopermans gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Mario Gabellis gone?
Gone to trading, every one.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

Where have all the Graham and Dodd followers gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Howard Marks followers gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Marty Whitman followers gone?
Quant strategies have picked them, every one.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?

With apologies to the late, great Pete Seeger, who wrote the beautiful "Where Have All the Flowers Gone?"

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