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BlackBerry's Party Is Just Getting Started

Stocks in this article: F MSFT BBRY NOK AAPL GOOG FB

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- BlackBerry's (BBRY) stock has been running in fifth gear after Ford (F) announced the Canadian company will power Ford's Sync technology instead of Microsoft (MSFT).

BlackBerry's stock, which is now up over 32% for the year based on its Monday close of $9.83, once again shot above its 200-day moving average. Investors aggressively accumulated, causing a spike in volume.

The BlackBerry stock move is far from over, in my opinion, and the party is just getting started. My previous BlackBerry article provided reasons for the bull thesis, but warned why sitting on your hands until the market fully digested the changing sentiment was warranted. (It was based on market timing, unlike my article Yes, BlackBerry Is a Buy that advised gaining exposure immediately.)

As I stressed in the volatility article, emotion is the driving force on any given day, but fundamental valuation mispricing is why individual stock investing can be more profitable than mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. For exact entry and risk ideas, see Monday's Real Money Pro trade idea.

Monday's upward movement was the third close above the 200-day moving average.. A first breakthrough of a 200-day, either upward or downward, rarely holds without retracing back to the other side. A second close above the 200-day continues the trend more often while a third price move that closes through usually continues the trend. Often enough that -- absent a compelling reason to ignore it -- provides an edge for investing.

I already feel BlackBerry is a value buy, and with Monday's third break above the average it's now a technical buy. If you've waited for the right risk vs. reward entry, it's difficult to imagine BlackBerry offering a more opportune time.

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