The Dow Industrial Average (15,995) traded as high as 16,013.59 on Tuesday, moving above this month's risky level at 15,986, but remains shy of my semiannual pivot at 16,245. The Dow is the only one of the five major averages that did not set a new all-time intraday high in January; that was set at 16,588.25 on Dec. 31. Despite the rally, the weekly chart continues to show declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics, with this average just below its five-week modified moving average at 16,007. My annual value levels remain at 14,835 and 13,467, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 16,761 and 16,860.
The S&P 500 (1819.0) traded as high as 1820.74 on Tuesday, still shy of its monthly risky level at 1832.9. The S&P 500 set its all-time intraday high at 1850.84 on Jan. 15, with my quarterly risky level at 1896.0. The weekly chart still shows a declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic with the index above its five-week MMA at 1803.7. My annual value levels at 1539.1 and 1442.1 with semiannual pivots at 1797.3 and 1764.4.
The Nasdaq (4191) traded as high as 4196 on Tuesday, approaching its multiyear intraday high at 4246.55 set on Jan. 22. My monthly and quarterly risky levels are above at 4267 and 4274. The Nasdaq is the major average that did not shift to negative on its weekly chart last Friday, as it closed above its five-week MMA at 4110. The 12x3x3 weekly stochastic is declining below 80.00, providing a negative divergence. The earlier weakness into Feb. 5 stayed above my semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 as the market's ballast. My annual value levels are 3471 and 3063.
The Dow Transportation Average (7254) has become a laggard with a high of 7282 on Tuesday, which is between its semiannual pivots at 7245 and 7376, and well below this month's risky level at 7412. It is also below its all-time intraday high at 7591.43 set on Jan. 23. A quarterly pivot has been a stabilizer at 7086. The weekly chart remains negative, with a declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic with its five-week MMA at 7273.The Russell 2000 (1129.16) is an even bigger laggard, with a high at 1131.01 on Tuesday, between its semiannual pivots at 1130.79 and 1133.29. The all-time intraday high is 1182.04 set on Jan. 22 vs. my quarterly pivot at 1180.35, and below this month's risky level at 1189.18. The weekly chart profile shows a declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic and is still below its five-week MMA at 1137.41. My annual value levels are 966.72 and 879.39. Investors are playing defense even with the Yellen bounce as the Dow Utility Average (511.65) surged to a new 2014 high at 512.97 following the Fed Chief's testimony. Utilities are the year-to-date leader, up by 4.3%. The weekly chart has been positive since the second week of January, with rising 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics and with weekly closes above its five-week MMA, now at 498.84. My annual and quarterly value levels are 497.53 and 496.84, with a semiannual pivot at 504.74 and semiannual and annual risky levels at 524.37 and 548.70. The bottom line is that Yellen hasn't shaken up the game too much, as year-to-date volatility has still been within the boundaries defined by my monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual levels -- which remain a tangled bowl of spaghetti. We needed to have simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week MMAs for all five major averages with declining stochastic readings to make a big change. That has not happened yet. At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @Suttmeier This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff
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