This Day On The Street
Continue to site
ADVERTISEMENT
This account is pending registration confirmation. Please click on the link within the confirmation email previously sent you to complete registration.
Need a new registration confirmation email? Click here

Sozzi: My Post-Jobs Plan

Jobs day's hotly anticipated numbers are in. Guess what? You are reminded again to ignore outside influences and do your own due diligence on companies and macro reports. Listen to me and nobody else. But seriously, bad news is bad news? Good news is good news? Dogs are cats? Give me a break with this useless jargon. The fact is that while businesses are hiring, they are not bringing on new employees at the pace the stock market expected given the array of pressures attacking financial statements. That's why I always make earnings season my guide to help me predict the nonfarm payrolls reports.

As for an actionable post-jobs-report plan, I hate to say it but stay cautious on the markets. Three things support my view:

As for an actionable post-jobs-report plan, I hate to say it but stay cautious on the markets. Three things support my view:

  1. A significant reduction in retail jobs will spread to other sectors of the economy in coming months, and it is a wakeup call to macro strategists expecting a boom in household consumption. A store closure wave is about to sweep across the U.S., trust me.
  2. December is initially being viewed as confirmation of a soft economic start to 2014 (no material weather revision upward).
  3. We just aren't getting the expansion in hours worked and wages that would facilitate quicker escape velocity. Remember this as the Federal Reserve appears to be on a preset course for taper (though it suggests otherwise).

6 Things I Learned While Studying

Chasing headlines as a stock strategist or as an investor is a losing proposition over the long term. Yes, my Twitter feed is hot with daily activity, but believe me, that interaction doesn't pay the bills. To get ahead financially and professionally, you have to be ahead constantly -- and that only comes from spending blocks of time studying. Depending on my commitments, Thursday and Fridays are my days to study and recharge the creativity batteries. During earnings season, that entails reading countless earnings reports. Here are six things I learned while making the rounds Thursday:

  1. ICYMI (in case you missed it), currency is destroying the top lines of companies, leading to less leverage over expenses. Two decent examples are Kellogg (K) and Costco (COST). Are you paying attention to the impact of currency on financial statements? Probably not.
  2. Currency devaluations in emerging markets are causing companies to raise prices in these markets to the detriment of volumes.
  3. Clorox (CLX) and Procter & Gamble (PG) are losing market share in key categories.
  4. Speaking of Clorox, a 6% price increase on Glad trash bags goes into effect in March. Stock up now!
  5. Retailers won't budge from aggressive promotions in the first quarter, as per comments from consumer-products companies.
  6. If I had to pick a consumer-discretionary stock, it would be Polo Ralph Lauren (RL). I sense that expectations have been reset in front of multiple new growth avenues opening globally.
At the time of publication, Sozzi held no position in the stocks mentioned.

Brian Sozzi is the CEO and Chief Equities Strategist of Belus Capital Advisors. He is responsible for developing and managing an equities portfolio of mid- and large-cap positions, in addition to leading the firm's digital content initiatives. He is also a personal finance columnist for Men's Health magazine.

Check Out Our Best Services for Investors

Action Alerts PLUS

Portfolio Manager Jim Cramer and Director of Research Jack Mohr reveal their investment tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.

Product Features:
  • $2.5+ million portfolio
  • Large-cap and dividend focus
  • Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
Quant Ratings

Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.

Product Features:
  • Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
  • Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
  • A custom stock screener
Stocks Under $10

David Peltier uncovers low dollar stocks with serious upside potential that are flying under Wall Street's radar.

Product Features:
  • Model portfolio
  • Stocks trading below $10
  • Intraday trade alerts
14-Days Free
Only $9.95
14-Days Free
Dividend Stock Advisor

David Peltier identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.

Product Features:
  • Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
  • Updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
Trifecta Stocks

Every recommendation goes through 3 layers of intense scrutiny—quantitative, fundamental and technical analysis—to maximize profit potential and minimize risk.

Product Features:
  • Model Portfolio
  • Intra Day Trade alerts
  • Access to Quant Ratings
Real Money

More than 30 investing pros with skin in the game give you actionable insight and investment ideas.

Product Features:
  • Access to Jim Cramer's daily blog
  • Intraday commentary and news
  • Real-time trading forums
Only $49.95
14-Days Free
14-Days Free

Markets

Chart of I:DJI
DOW 16,027.05 -177.92 -1.10%
S&P 500 1,853.44 -26.61 -1.42%
NASDAQ 4,283.7530 -79.3910 -1.82%

Our Tweets

Free Reports

Top Rated Stocks Top Rated Funds Top Rated ETFs