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Tableau Software Surges: What Wall Street's Saying

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Tableau Software (DATA - Get Report) shares surged 14% to $90.52 in early Wednesday trading after the analytics company posted exceptionally strong fourth-quarter results.

Seattle-based Tableau earned 20 cents a share on $81.5 million in sales. This number blew past Wall Street expectations, with analysts expecting the company to post break even earnings and revenue of $67 million.

Boosting sales this quarter was exceptional growth in license revenue, which accounted for 71% of total revenue, or $58 million. License revenue jumped 93% year over year, a key metric for cloud computing companies. Maintenance revenue doubled from the year-ago quarter to $23.4 million.

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Here's what several Wall Street analysts had to say:

Credit Suisse analyst Philip Winslow (Neutral, $85 PT)

"Tableau reported December quarter results with revenue, deferred revenue, and cash flow above consensus estimates-with 93.0% year-over-over license growth driven by large deal signings (with deals greater than $100,000 nearly tripling year over year to 179 from the average of 60 per quarter in 2012), expansion into international markets (for which revenue grew 125% year over year), and the addition of over 1,800 new customers (an increase of 75% year over year versus an increase of 64% in the prior quarter). We believe that the release of Tableau 8 contributed much of the reacceleration in growth over the past three quarters. We remain encouraged by Tableau's continued focus on driving license growth both domestically and abroad, as well as maintaining strong renewal rates. Tableau's December quarter results reinforce our thesis that Tableau is well positioned to disrupt and redefine the existing BI market, as well as open up an even larger revenue opportunity, by delivering powerful but simple and easy-to-use self-service analytics tools."

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White (Buy, $104 PT)

"Last night, Tableau delivered the strongest 4Q:13 print in our universe this earnings season and offered up a healthy 2014 outlook that we believe speaks to the company's momentum around the Big Data trend. Tableau grew new customer accounts at a healthy clip in 4Q:13, showed a strong uptick in the number of transactions over $100K, and we believe it has reached an inflection point in international markets. As such, we are increasing our revenue estimates for 2014 and 2015, while raising our 12-month price target to $104.00 (from $88.00). We also believe Tableau's strong 4Q:13 print could have implications for those companies closely tied to the Big Data trend, including Splunk."

Deutsche Bank analyst Karl Keirstead (Buy, $100 PT)

"Tableau posted outstanding Q4 results with revenues of $81.5mn (+95% y/y) versus our $69mn (+64% y/y) estimate. Outperformance on license revenues (93% growth) also contributed to upside in EPS at $0.20 versus our modeled break-even EPS. Tableau is seeing greater momentum internationally (up over 100% in 4Q and now 22% of the mix) and larger deals. Momentum and adoption still strong despite the boost from a year-end budget flush. We believe the 2014 outlook for 40% growth is conservative."

JMP Securities analyst Greg McDowell (Outperform, $105 PT)

"The revenue upside was driven by an impressive 179 deals over $100k (versus our estimate of 135) and a larger number of customer account additions than we were expecting (1,800 versus our estimate of 1,400), and our sense is that the company vastly exceeded its own internal stretch goal for the quarter, evidence to us that Tableau's presence in
the marketplace is accelerating. Stepping back, we continue to like Tableau because it has an ambitious vision to democratize one of the biggest areas of spending in IT - business analytics, it has a rapidly expanding customer base, and one of the fastest growth rates in our coverage universe."

--Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York

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