Things are a little funny in financial markets right now. Investors have been taking a "sell first, ask questions later" approach to the decline that began with emerging market currencies. On Thursday, stocks rallied in the U.S., but options markets didn't assign a lower price to downside risk, and implied volatility actually spiked higher at the end of the day. It may take some time for investors to be reassured, and it's probably best to trade a little lighter until things look more normal - the opportunities won't disappear overnight. In the mean time, here are some things worth reading:
"Emerging market plunge: Sino the times?" - Sid Verma at Euromoney brings a lot of clarity to the EM situation, pointing out the different treatment of surplus and deficit countries and the non-causal role of China.
"Your guide to EM compartmentalisation" - Not all emerging markets are the same: this note breaks them down into five groups.
"Turkey - Are Trading Correlations to Global Risk Valid?" - No: Macro Man note that recent correlations are likely spurious and that developed markets should reward longs.
"Paul Tucker on the carry trade" - Makes you think about what it must be like for the central bank governor of a small country facing down FX vigilantes.
ISE volatility options:
The ISE received approval from the SEC to list options on the Nations VolDex, which measures one month at the money implied volatility in SPY options. Here's the WSJ on the announcement. I will be writing up some thoughts on this product next week.
"The Hidden Risks of Bank Loan Funds" - David Schawel explains several reasons why the chase for yield is causing investors to take some unexpected risks.
"Why the Homeownership Rate Is Misleading" - Jeff Kolko, chief economist for Trulia, explains the difference between homeownership and household formation. Crucial. h/t @mbusigin "Review of Bhansali, Tail Risk Hedging" - Brenda Jubin is always worth reading.
"Forecasting time series using R" - Slides for the course.
For your soul:
T. S. Eliot's Four Quartets - read aloud by Jeremy Irons, h/t @faustroll.
Internets Celebrities - The Food Warriors: 207th Street - These guys make great videos around the city and I was glad to see they went to my old stomping grounds.
Conferencecall.bizConferencecall.biz - Existential despair, or comedy, depending I suppose on how you spend your days.
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