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AIG Is 'Top Long Pick' Among P&C Insurers

Stocks in this article: AIG ALL AER

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- American International Group (AIG) has lagged other major property and casualty insurance carriers in improving its underwriting results, but the shares are a bargain, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Jay Cohen.

AIG was up over 3% in early trading. 

The insurer's shares closed at $47.29 Monday and traded for just 0.75 times their reported Sept. 30 tangible book value, excluding other comprehensive income, of $62.68. The shares are also cheap on a forward P/E basis, trading for 9.4 times the consensus 2015 earnings estimate of $5.02 a share, among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

AIG will announce its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 13, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.402 billion, or 95 cents a share, on revenue of $8.563 billion. This compares to earnings of $1.421 billion, or 96 cents a share, on revenue of $8.427 billion in the third quarter, and net income of $290 million, or 20 cents a share, on revenue of $8.613 billion, during the fourth quarter of 2012. The results for the fourth quarter of 2012 reflected a $4.4 billion write-down on AIG's planned sale of its International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC) subsidiary.

Cohen in a note to clients on Tuesday wrote, "AIG is our top long pick for 2014 among the property/casualty insurance group... We believe concerns following 3Q results were overdone and see several catalysts for the stock over the next year."

The analyst moved AIG to his firm's "US 1" list, since the shares at Tuesday's close had "pulled back to levels last seen following the 3Q earnings announcement."

AIG's stock valuation looks very low when compared to an average price-to-book ratio of 1.17 for non-life insurance companies covered by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The major concern for investors following the third quarter was AIG's P&C underwriting results. The company's P&C insurance unit had an underwriting loss of $135 million during the third quarter, compared to an underwriting loss of $441 million during the third quarter of 2012. The P&C combined ratio improved to 101.6% during the third quarter from 105.0% a year earlier.

The combined ratio is an insurer's claims and expenses divided by its earned premiums. A ratio below 100% indicates an underwriting profit.

For the first three quarters of 2013, AIG's P&C unit showed an underwriting loss of $129 million, improving considerably from an underwriting loss of $838 million a year earlier. The P&C combined ratio for the first three quarters was 100.5%, improving from 103.2% a year earlier.

In contrast, many of AIG's P&C competitors have been showing P&C underwriting profits, as the company has adopted more rational premium pricing over the past few years and has benefitted from a decline in overall catastrophe losses this year.

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