The next time we see fretting over a Fed meeting, or the Fed minutes, or a Fed head speech, you need to remember this non-Fed-derived bond move of yesterday and today. No, Fed news is not irrelevant, but it just isn't nearly as important to the future of interest rates or, more important, the stock market, as so many think. That paralysis by Fed analysis must, at last, end in 2014.
But I know I am going to be drowned out once again by those saying the weaknesses in the currencies of Argentina, South Africa and Turkey are being caused by the Fed's tapering policies. I have heard that already this morning multiple times. Made me sick.
I think this will be the year where the American strengths, not weaknesses, will play out. The American political system -- laughed about for years but now looking a lot better -- and the American industrial strength and American technological superiority, will all constitute long-term themes that will distinguish us from others. All this will take center stage as the Fed's ability -- or, more important, need -- to orchestrate things fades into the background.This will be the year of case-by-case. The Argentinian government has been teetering the way of Venezuela for some time now. A secular Turkey has been giving way to a regime in which economic growth is losing relevance. Those who are in these markets have stupidly reached for yield, and now they are paying the price. But to link it to the Fed? It will be done. The Fed-centralizers -- meaning those who think that the Fed is central to everything and anything -- will control the mic again. They will be as wrong now as they were last year and the year before. It will take a Fed debt-ceiling-derived default to change my mind on this issue. Some "leaders" want us to go there but, try as they might, I still don't think it will happen. Otherwise 2014 will be the year of "more rationality" in the discourse of bonds, and therefore, hopefully, more in the discourse of stocks, too. There, I said it. I feel better already. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long KEY.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published a 6:33 a.m. EST on Real Money on Jan. 24.
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