By: Adam Feuerstein | 01/21/14 - 09:00 AM EST(GILD) hepatitis C pill Sovaldi looks really good.
1. The total TRx for Sovaldi over the first five weeks of its launch (despite two major holidays) is >3x the TRx for Incivek over the first five weeks of its launch.
2. If TRx were to only remain flat through year end and we assume 20% discounting on price and a similar capture rate to Incivek for sales from IMS TRx, we estimate that FY 2014 sales could be ~$2.4 Bn. (The current sell side estimate for FY'14 Sovaldi sales is ~$2.5 Bn although my buy side surveys of US Sovaldi sales have suggested YOUR estimates have been higher, ~$3 Bn)
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