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Morgan Stanley Pops as CSX Derails Following Earnings

NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Last week I covered 12 regional banks and eight other companies with pre-earnings buy-and-trade profiles. I will provide a scorecard for banks next Monday as five more regional banks report quarterly results this week. Today's scorecard covers the eight other stocks that reported quarterly results last that I covered pre-earnings on Jan. 13 in CSX, GE, Goldman and Intel Earnings Preview.

The stock market has been difficult for stock pickers as 84.5% of all stocks are overvalued according to www.ValuEngine.com with 52.1% overvalued by 20% or more. In addition all five of the major equity averages are overbought technically. In this environment stocks that miss earnings or offer weaker-than-expected guidance can get hit with significant percentage losses almost instantaneously.

Last week's biggest winner was Morgan Stanley (MS) with a week's gain of 6.7% while the biggest loser was railroad CSX Corp (CSX) which derailed by 5.7% on the week after setting a new all time high pre-earnings.

Here are my post-earnings buy-and-trade profiles for the eight stocks that I profiled last Monday:

American Express (AXP) ($90.97 vs. $88.55 on Jan. 10 up 2.7%) missed analysts' estimates by a penny, earning $1.25 per share afterhours on Jan.16. The stocks shrugged off the miss, trading to a new all-time intraday high at $93.62 on Friday. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought with its five-week modified moving average at $87.27 and 200-week simple moving average at $55.91. Amex maintains a hold rating and is 35% overvalued with a gain of 49.8% over the last 12 months. My semiannual value level is $82.46 with a semiannual pivot at $88.58, and monthly and quarterly pivots at $91.75 and $92.74.

CSX Corp ($27.23 vs. $28.88 on Jan. 10 down 5.7%) missed analysts' estimates by a penny earning 42 cents a share afterhours on Jan. 15. The stock closed at $29.23 on Jan. 15, just shy of the new all-time intraday high at $29.24. The open on Jan. 16 was below the 50-day simple moving average at $27.67 with a day's low at $26.76. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at $27.74 and the 200-week SMA at $22.37. CSX has a hold rating, is 15.9% overvalued with a gain of 30.4% over the last 12 months. My quarterly value level is $26.82 with monthly and weekly pivot at $27.51 and $28.37 and semiannual risky levels at $30.46 and $32.07.

General Electric (GE) ($26.58 vs. $26.96 on Jan. 10 down 1.4%) matched analysts' estimates, earning 53 cents a share premarket on Jan. 17. The stock traded to a multiyear intraday high at $28.09 on Dec. 31 and was above its 50-day SMA at $27.08 at the Jan. 16 close. GE gapped below the 50-day SMA to a low of $26.28 on Jan. 17. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $26.89. GE has a hold rating and is 25.7% overvalued with a gain of 24.8% over the last 12 months. The stock is below semiannual pivots at $27.76 and $27.22 with a weekly pivot at $26.97 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $28.10 and $28.95.

Goldman Sachs (GS) ($176.28 vs $178.39 on Jan. 10 down 1.2%) beat analysts' estimates by 46 cents, earning $4.60 a share premarket on Jan. 16. The new Dow component traded to a multiyear intraday high at $181.13 on Jan. 6 and traded as low as $174.50 on Jan. 16. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $173.25 and its 200-week SMA at $137.49. Goldman has a hold rating and is 26.2% overvalued with a gain of 25% over the last 12 months. My semiannual value levels are $128.94 and $109.41 with weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $179.71, $181.05, $185.25 and $192.37.

Intel Corp (INTC)($25.85 vs. $25.53 on Jan. 10 up 1.3%) missed analysts' estimates by a penny, earning 51 cents a share afterhours on Jan. 16. The stock may be up slightly on the week but not without significant volatility both before and after its report. Intel traded to a new multiyear intraday high at $27.12 on Jan. 15 then traded as low as $25.25 on Jan. 17 in reaction to the earnings miss. The decline from high to low was 6.9%. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $25.13 and its 200-week SMA at $22.85. Intel was downgraded to hold from buy on its spike to the new high and is 22.5% overvalued with a gain of 14% over the last 12 months. My annual value levels are $20.78 and $19.44 with monthly and quarterly pivots at $24.26 and $24.40 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at $26.49, $26.33 and $28.95.

Morgan Stanley ($33.40 vs. $31.30 on Jan. 10 up 6.7%) beat analysts' estimates by 6 cents, earning 50 cents a share premarket on Jan. 17. The stock traded to a new multiyear intraday high at $33.52 in reaction to this report. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $31.31 and its 200-week SMA at $22.61. Morgan Stanley has a hold rating and is 45.8% overvalued with a gain of 61% over the last 12 months. Weekly and quarterly value levels are $31.87 and $30.69, with a monthly risky level at $34.07.

Schlumberger (SLB) ($90.21 vs. $88.17 on Jan. 10 up 2.3%) beat analysts' estimates by 3 cents, earning $1.35 premarket on Jan. 17. The stock had been below its 50-day SMA since Nov. 25 but ended the week above this moving average, which is at $89.11. The weekly chart shifts to positive this week given a Friday close above its five-week MMA at $89.13 with its 200-week SMA at $75.24. The oils-energy stock has a hold rating and is 10.2% overvalued with a gain of 23% over the last 12 months. My semiannual and quarterly value levels are $85.94 and $85.38 with semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at $91.36, $93.94 and $100.48.

United Health (UNH) ($72.52 vs. $74.70 on Jan. 10 down 2.9%) beat analysts' estimates by a penny, earning $1.41 premarket on Jan. 16. The stock traded to an all-time intraday high at $77.32 on Jan. 7 and ended the week below its 50-day SMA at $73.14 with the 200-day SMA at $69.05. The weekly chart shifts to negative with a close this week below its five-week MMA at $73.29 with its 200-week SMA at $51.28. The healthcare insurance company has a buy rating and is 12.2% overvalued with a gain of 33.3% over the last 12 months. The stock is below a wall of pivots. Weekly, quarterly and semiannual pivots are $73.22, $76.43 and $75.19 with semiannual and monthly risky levels at $79.65 and $81.77.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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