All in all, this is a "temper your enthusiasm" number. That's just what I'll be doing until I see something that tells me, definitively, that things have been getting better, not worse, since December. I am sorry to say that I don't have any indication that will be the case anytime soon.
[Read: How Rich Is Congress? Most Lawmakers Are Now Millionaires]
China Is Lurking
Posted at 10:53 a.m. EDT on Thursday, Jan. 9
You want my biggest worry? China.
We are seeing degradation in the Baltic Freight Index to the point that it's tough to watch. We have seen a decline in copper. We get government numbers that aren't so hot and auto numbers that are cooling, and none of it is good news. Vale (VALE) has been a hideous underperformer for the Action Alerts PLUS charitable trust and it, too, is connected to China via iron ore.
[Read: Katje: Bright Prospects for Discovery Communications]
[Read: BMW Suffers Big Setback Against Tesla in California]
At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long VALE and CAT.