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Micron Tech, Constellation Brands Pop on Earnings Reports

Stocks in this article: AA BBBY FDO MON MU RT SONC STZ TXI

Monsanto (MON) ($112.42 at today's open vs. $116.35 on Jan. 3 down 3.4%) beat EPS estimates by 4 cents earning 67 cents a share in the pre-market on Wednesday. The stock traded to a day's high at $116.80 then fell to $111.02 on Thursday closing above its 50-day SMA at $111.27 with its 200-day SMA at $105.11. The agricultural products company still has a sell rating which explains the price reversal. The stock is 14.3% overvalued with a gain of 12.4% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $112.56 and its 200-week SMA at $80.16. My monthly value level is $104.69 with quarterly and annual risky levels at $127.73, $129.57 and $135.68.

Micron Tech ($23.39 at today's open vs. $20.97 on Jan. 3 up 11.5%) beat EPS estimates by a whopping 34 cents earning 77 cents a share in the after-hours on Tuesday. The stock popped to a new multi-year intra-day high at $24.50 on Wednesday then dipped to $22.91 on Thursday. The semiconductor company maintains a hold rating is 46.1% overvalued with a gain of 217.9% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $21.26 and its 200-week SMA at $9.33. My quarterly value level is $18.60 with a monthly risky level at $24.48 which was tested at the high giving buy-and-trade investors a very nice gain.

Ruby Tuesday ($6.14 at today's open vs. $7.00 on Jan.3 down 12.3%) missed EPS estimates by19 cents reporting a worse than expected loss of 43 cents a share in the after-hours on Wednesday. The stock was already on the decline pre-earnings and opened Thursday at the week's low at $5.89 before rebounding to $6.45 on the assumption that the earnings miss was priced into the stock's weakness. The casual dinning restaurant chain maintains a hold rating is 86.3% overvalued with a loss of 26.1% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile shifts to negative given a close today below its five-week MMA at $6.74 and its 200-week SMA is at $8.95. My monthly value level is $5.34 with a quarterly risky level at $8.44.

Sonic (SONC) ($19.58 at today's open vs. $19.72 on Jan. 3 down 0.7%) matched EPS estimates earning 13 cents a share in the after-hours on Monday. The stock popped to $20.76 on Tuesday then dipped to $18.88 on Wednesday and is below its 50-day SMA at $19.94 with the 200-day SMA at $16.43. The drive-though restaurant chain maintains a buy rating is 55.5% overvalued with a gain of 79.3% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile shifts to negative with a close today below its five-week MMA at $19.90 as a parabolic bubble in this stock appears poised to pop. My semiannual value level is $14.51 with quarterly and monthly risky levels at $20.81 and $22.19.

Constellation Brands ($77.60 at today's open vs. $69.39 on Jan. 3 up 11.8%) beat EPS estimates by 19 cents earning $1.10 a share in the pre-market on Wednesday. The stock surged to a new all-time intra-day high at $78.40. The alcoholic beverage company maintains a hold rating is 49% overvalued with a gain of 116.2% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $70.36 in an inflating stock-specific parabolic bubble. When a stock trades to an extreme parabolic you do not have a risky level, but there's an 85% chance that the stock will return to my quarterly pivot at $71.84 by the end of March.

Texas Industries (TXI) ($68.05 at today's open vs. $66.95 on Jan. 3 up 1.6%) missed EPS estimates by 13 cents reporting a larger than expected loss of 35 cents a share in the after-hours on Wednesday. The stock traded as low as $61.93 on Thursday then rebounded to $68.50 holding my range of value levels. The supplier of construction materials has been upgraded to sell from a strong sell rating is 4.9% overvalued with a gain of 21.8% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile remains positive with a close today above the five-week MMA at $63.33 and its 200-week SMA is at $43.77. My semiannual value level is $59.01 with monthly and semiannual pivots at $63.67 and $62.89 and a quarterly risky level at $70.44.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com
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