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[video] Doug Kass: 15 Surprises for 2014 (Part 1)

Surprise No. 5: A number of major surprises affect individual stocks and sectors.
 

  • Citigroup outperforms Bank of America (BAC).
  • Starbucks (SBUX) shares fall by 25% as consumers (finally) balk at the company's expensive product offerings.
  • 3-D printing stocks halve in price.
  • Apple's shares drop back under $500 a share, never breaching $600 to the upside and spending most of the year under $525 a share as profit estimates are again shaved. (Icahn dumps the shares; see more on Icahn in also-ran surprises.)
  • Amazon (AMZN) reports a huge earnings beat in the first half of 2014 -- the shares trade over $550 a share and are a standout in the moribund high-beta, speculative sector.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) goes private (a previous-year surprise).
  • My "stock of the decade," Altisource Asset Management, doubles in price to $2,000 a share after rising by 1,200% in 2013.
  • My 2014 "stock of the year," Monitise (MONI.L/MONIF), triples in price (after doubling last year).
  • The latest hedge fund hotel, General Motors (GM), drops by 20% in 2014 as automobile sales stall.
  • Consumer staples and master limited partnerships are among the top performing sectors.
  • Retailers, transportation and housing shares are among the bottom performing sectors.

Strategy: Buy C/short BAC pair trade, short SBUX, short 3D Systems (DDD), short AAPL calls, buy AMZN common and calls, buy GS, buy AAMC, buy MONIF, short GM, buy Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP), short Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) and Market Vectors Retail ETF (RTH), and short PowerShares QQQ (QQQ).

At the time of publication, Doug Kass was long AAMC, C, TLT, BAB, BTT, ETX, BKN, NQS, NPM, NAD, NMO, NMA, VPV, VCV, NQU, NPI, NRK and MONI.L; short SBUX, BRK.B, QQQ and SPY, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc.

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