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10 Calls For 2014: Markets, Economy, Politics



Politics

  1. The current presumption by nearly everyone is that Hillary Clinton is a lock for the 2016 Democratic nomination for President. Too many people are too certain about this. I believe that it won't happen, and we'll begin to see signs of that in 2014. When everyone and their brother is certain about something that is more than two years away -- especially in politics -- don't believe it.

  2. The 2014 midterm elections will be a bloodbath, as incumbent Democrats try to distance themselves from the Affordable Care Act and its continuing fallout. Republicans should pick up seats in the house and take ownership of the Senate, sending Harry Reid to an early retirement as Senate majority leader.

The Economy

  1. I remain skeptical about the so-called economic recovery. Unemployment will not improve much in 2014, and I don't mean the headline number that is currently 7%. Rather, I'm looking at the labor-force participation rate, which is now at 35-year lows. Don't be fooled either by the recent 4.1% GDP number we received for Q3.

Sports

  1. The Eagles finally win a Super Bowl, a dream kept alive by Sunday's exciting win over the Cowboys. Those of you who are laughing at that one will really like the next one.

  2. Fifty-one-year-old pitcher Jamie Moyer, who has never officially retired, gives major league baseball one last comeback attempt in 2014. He will become the oldest pitcher to get a major league win, breaking his own record set in 2012 when he was 49. The last we heard, Moyer was working on a knuckleball. (When I told my teenage son about these year-end sports predictions, he said, "Dad, those aren't predictions, they are hopes!")


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