But where is the flood of money into venture capital firms to invest in the next big thing? Where are the crazy initial public offerings of Theglobe.com and Webvan? Where are your cab drivers telling you how much money they just made on bitcoin? Where are the house flippers buying up four or five condos in Naples, Florida?
We aren't there yet. In fact, we really aren't even close yet.
On the continuum of fear and greed, we're probably only still in the middle. I think we're greedier as a society than we were a year ago but we were much more fearful last year. Last year I asked 60 people I really respect to send me their estimates for the S&P 500 for the coming year. The average estimate was 1,500. There was only one crazy guy who predicted 1,800 and even he was too conservative. (My guess was 1,700.)
My point is that we were way too conservative last year with the healing process that the economy is going through.
A couple of other quick thoughts.Yahoo!'s (YHOO) not dead yet. A year ago, most people were saying the "easy money had been made" in Yahoo! when it was at $20. It's now close to $41, and again we're hearing people complain the core business is worth next to nothing. I've been banging the drum on Yahoo! for three years now, to the point where I had people emailing me and telling me not to write about it so much because "nobody cared." I don't think the run is done in Yahoo!. Of course, we'll have the Alibaba IPO but most people aren't counting on their Japanese yen hedge paying out a lot this year, a possible cash-rich split and big stock buybacks. If all those happen, there's a chance Yahoo! could go to over $60 in 2014. Also, I don't think the run in AOL (AOL) is over. People hated this stock at $10 a few years ago. Now it's close to $46. The company will continue to grow operating income before depreciation and amortization this year, even with all the social media stocks growing. I think it will be a very strong year for AOL coming up. At the time of publication the author had was long AOL and YHOO. Follow @ericjackson This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.
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