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9 Retail Stock Winners Since Thanksgiving

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Here's the low-down on nine retail winners in the past month led by discounter Dollar General (DG) and athletic footwear retailer Foot Locker (FL).

The overall price performances for the retailers have been disappointing since Thanksgiving but most have maintained buy ratings. The retail-wholesale sector is 28.1% overvalued with an overweight rating. Of the 343 stocks in this sector 83.4% have buy or strong by ratings.

Since the day before Thanksgiving the Nasdaq is the leader of the five major equity averages up 2.7% followed by the Russell 2000 with a gain of 1.8%, then Dow Industrials up 1.6%, the S&P 500 up 1.4% and Dow Transports up 1.2%. Only three of the nine retail winners beat the major averages.

  • Ann (ANN) ($36.41 vs. $35.97 on Nov. 27 up 1.2%) the retailer of upscale women's clothing has a buy rating is 25.2% overvalued with a gain of 7.8% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day simple moving average at $33.05. Ann has a positive weekly chart profile and is above its five-week modified moving average at $35.71 and its 200-week SMA at $27.46, and set its 2013 high at $37.40 on Nov. 22. My annual value level is $30.07 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $37.63 and $38.74.
  • Chico's (CHS) ($18.71 vs. $18.61 on Nov. 27 up 0.5%) the retailer of casual clothing and accessories has a buy rating is 22.1% overvalued with a gain of just 0.8% over the last 12 months and is above its 200-day SMA at $17.32. Chicos has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile and is above its five-week MMA at $18.16 and its 200-week SMA at $14.62, and set its 2013 high at $19.95 on May 22. My annual value level is $16.25 with a monthly pivot at $18.16 and semiannual and weekly risky levels at $19.10 and $19.49.
  • Dollar General ($61.47 vs. $57.35 on Nov. 27 up 7.2%) has a buy rating is 18% overvalued with a solid gain of 41.4% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $54.74. Dollar General has a positive weekly chart profile and is above its five-week MMA at $59.47 and its 200-week SMA at $41.37, and set an all-time intra-day high at $61.95 on Christmas eve. My monthly value level is $58.77 with a quarterly risky level at $62.53.
  • Foot Locker ($41.24 vs. $38.97 on Nov. 27 up 5.8%) has a buy rating is 15.7% overvalued with a gain of 24.5% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $35.00. Foot Locker has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile and is above its five-week modified moving average at $38.66 and its 200-week SMA at $26.25, and set an all-time intra-day high at $41.45 on Christmas eve. My semiannual value levels are $39.29 and $36.94 and weekly and quarterly risky levels at $42.58 and $44.43.
  • Macy's (M) ($52.71 vs. $53.54 on Nov. 27 slipping 1.6%) the full service mall anchor has a buy rating is 21.4% overvalued with a solid gain of 40.4% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $46.77. Macys has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile and is above its five-week MMA at $50.66 and its 200-week SMA at $33.58, and set its all-time intra-day high at $54.07 on Nov. 29. My semiannual value level is $46.21 with semiannual, quarterly and monthly pivots at $52.85, $53.52 and $53.63 and a weekly risky level at $56.34.
  • Shoe Carnival (SCVL) ($28.79 vs. $28.48 on Nov. 27 up 1.1%) the footwear retailer has a buy rating is 32% overvalued with a solid gain of 44.9% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $24.82. Shoe Carnival has a positive weekly chart profile and is above its five-week MMA at $27.85 and its 200-week SMA at $19.62, and set its all-time intra-day high at $29.40 on Dec. 3. My weekly value level is $26.96 with semiannual and quarterly pivots at $28.38 and $29.30 and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $30.37 and $31.13.
  • Tiffany (TIF) ($91.03 vs. $88.16 on Nov. 27 up 3.3%) the retailer of high-end jewelry and diamonds has a buy rating is 28.6% overvalued with a solid gain of 56.1% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $77.93. Tiffany has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile and is above its five-week MMA at $86.77 and its 200-week SMA at $64.10, and set its all-time intra-day high at $91.51 on Dec. 18. My semiannual value level is $86.69 with a monthly pivot at $89.35 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at $92.21 and $95.51.
  • TJX Companies (TJX) ($63.03 vs. $63.26 on Nov. 27 slipping 0.4%) the parent of retailers Marshalls, T.J. Maxx and Home Goods has a buy rating is 32.4% overvalued with a solid gain of 49.3% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $53.69. TJX Companies has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile and is above its five-week MMA at $61.60 and its 200-week SMA at $36.15, and set its all-time intra-day high at $64.09 on Nov. 21. My annual value level is $52.67 with monthly and quarterly pivots at $63.73 and $63.94 and weekly risky level at $65.47.
  • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) ($78.01 vs. $80.93 on Nov. 27 down 3.6%) the countries largest big box retailer has a buy rating is 8.5% overvalued with a gain of 13.8% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $76.44. Wal-Mart will have a negative weekly chart profile with a close this week below its five-week MMA at $78.11 with its 200-week SMA at $62.83, and set its all-time intra-day high at $81.37 on Dec. 4. My semiannual value level is $74.96 with a monthly pivot at $78.66 and weekly and quarterly risky levels at $81.24 and $88.09.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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