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Jim Cramer: How the Dow Will Fare in 2014, Part 1

7. Coca-Cola (KO). This company is going to do something big this year. It has to. Both diet and regular carbonated soft drinks are declining at a pace that is alarming and shocking. We could be seeing the beginning of the tobacco-izing of this industry, and that doesn't lend itself to Coca-Cola's 20x multiple. The sub-3% dividend yield doesn't do much for me, either. But a big restructuring, coupled with a change in management and a possible acquisition to get it less dependent on carbonated drinks, sure would help. This is a very challenged company and, again, if Warren Buffett were to let some go, it could easily trade to $35. With restructuring, I am expecting I think we could see the stock reach $45. It's ironic -- what is saving Pepsico (PEP) from a similar debacle is its Frito Lay division. It, too, is struggling with carbonated soft drinks, but snacks remains a very viable growth business.

8. Disney (DIS). When Disney reported last, there was almost universal opprobrium for the company. It drove me crazy, because I thought it was a darned good quarter with excellent ESPN numbers -- the key metric -- as well as decent box office and excellent theme parks. Since then things have only gotten better as gasoline has gone down, as the consumer has vacationed more and as ESPN rates have held steady to higher.

But here is the real kicker for this company: With a stock that has rallied almost 50%, the Star Wars franchise is now on the horizon. Not only do I expect even fewer non-traditional Marvel/Disney movies, but I think the hype over the new Star Wars movie will be rife at this time next year. Companies like Disney are going to get much higher price-to-earnings ratios as we see that earnings aren't going down when rates go higher. As a result, I can see this stock going to $83 without much trouble, meaning a 20x multiple on next year's probable earnings.

9. DuPont (DD). This year we are going to see what a noncommoditized DuPont is made of, and I bet it is made of some pretty darned good numbers. When Ellen Kullman broke the news that she would be spinning out the company's Ti02 division, I was thrilled. Because, next to uncoated free sheet paper, fertilizer and corrugated container board, not much offers less added value than a chemical whitener company. Without this division, we should see immediate multiple expansion at DuPont, and I think the new company could earn $4 per share. That would send Dupont's stock to $80.

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I believe DuPont will be one of the best-performing stocks in the index. This new DuPont is loaded with fast-growing specialty chemicals and biotech-bred agricultural products. Plus, Kullman's committed to the dividend. The stock has risen nicely since the announcement, but I think there'll be much more to be had when the spinoff is consummated.

10. Exxon Mobil. This will be the year when Exxon will get to have a multiple that might even be at a premium to the average stock in the S&P. That means it could trade to $128, and it will be one of the best performers in the Dow. Such is the power of a Warren Buffett, that he can convey higher-multiple status on a company that has slow-growing but consistent earnings and the kind of monster share buyback that he so covets.

I think that Exxon, after multiple years -- not quarters, but years -- of being just kind of an oil bank with very little production growth and replacement activity, is now seeing paydirt on its myriad projects and is going to grow consistently in a fashion that will make the other major oil companies jealous. This is Exxon's time, and it is now a very easy stock to own. So it will be bid up exorbitantly, as all darlings are.

Stay tuned later on today for my next two batches of Dow predictions.

At the time of publication,, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long AXP, CAT and OXY.

Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Real Money on Dec. 24.

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Chart of I:DJI
DOW 15,660.18 -254.56 -1.60%
S&P 500 1,829.08 -22.78 -1.23%
NASDAQ 4,266.8370 -16.7550 -0.39%

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