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TheStreet Open House

Rumors of BlackBerry's Death Were Greatly Exaggerated

Stocks in this article: BBRYAAPLAMZNNOKMSFT

Chen wrote a letter to employees. Here are a couple of key points from the letter:

"...BlackBerry 10. BES 10 commercial and test server installs have increased to over 30,000, up from 25,000 in September 2013."

"...More importantly, as we focus on monetizing BBM, over 250,000 BBM Channels have been created by a global user base, including large brands such as Coke Indonesia and USA Today. BBM is also the most secure mobile messaging service for use in regulated enterprises."

BlackBerry went from hero to zero in the North American market but it remains a strong brand is South Asia including India and especially Indonesia. As investors it's easy to dismiss a brand that is failing here, but it's crucial to think globally. With a share price well below book value and new leadership that isn't focused on a garage sale, investors once again have a chance to experience significant upside.

Chen states with the changes that were and will be made, 2015 should come in near breakeven and back in black in 2016. Remember, Wall Street is forward looking so shares will price in earnings early. Those that take the greatest risk with early (or already) entry will reap the spoils.

Risks include loss of enterprise clients. Apple and Microsoft are in a position to build out a secure government approved ecosystem as an alternative. BlackBerry could fail to execute in developing countries. Smart phone makers Nokia, Apple, LG, HTC, Samsung and others have two or three generation-old phones that are contenders based on price and features in developing markets.

The way I'm playing BlackBerry is to buy on dips below $7 and writing covered calls at or above $8. I think BlackBerry is worth about $8 in a sale as "scrap metal" and much higher if it manages to stop the cash burn. Don't get crazy, though -- BlackBerry's ticker should be RISK for as volatile as it is.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @RobertWeinstein

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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