NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I've decided to design a new portfolio; this one is very different than those I've written about in the past. This is the anti-value portfolio, "The Super Six," comprised of what I consider to be six of the most overvalued, priced-for-perfection companies available in the markets today.
They are also six innovative companies, household names that have created a buzz among investors and consumers. I use the products or services of most of them, and will continue to do so. So will millions of Americans, as well as consumers across the globe. These are real companies with real businesses, but valuations and expectations have reached a fever pitch. When that happens, there's not a lot for room for error.
Admittedly, these situations can persist for a long time. As long as hope springs eternal and institutions continue to buy, the gravy train can continue. That is one of the value investor's great dilemmas; you perceive that a security is extremely overvalued, but two years later, the price has gone even higher. The stock is still overvalued, but you are the fool who made a bad call. Ultimately, though, companies either deliver results (a bottom line) or they don't; expectations or met or they aren't.
The Super Six is a richly valued portfolio. With an average market cap of $70 billion, the stocks have an average price-to-sales ratio of almost 18 and price-to-book ratio of 17.5. While the group has generated a collective $87 billion in revenue over the trailing 12-month period, that has not translated into meaningful bottom lines. Just three of the six are profitable on a trailing 12-month basis, and those three have an average price-to-earnings ratio of about 400.Many investors may say that a trailing P/E ratio is a meaningless measure at this stage for some of these companies, and perhaps they have a point. If we look toward earnings estimates, for 2014, the, average P/E is just under 100, and that is excluding one of the six that isn't expected to be profitable next year. Looking out two years, the average forward P/E ratio according to consensus estimates is 167. The one thing that all of the Super Six stocks have in common is rapid revenue growth -- they have averaged 50% growth over the past year. This trend is expected to continue. These are the rock stars of the growth investing world, the must-own names. Some of them may actually deliver, eventually. But overall, at this point, the price is high, and so are the expectations. Without further ado, I officially introduce the Super Six: Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), LinkedIn (LNKD), Netflix (NFLX), Salesforce.com (CRM) and Twitter (TWTR). I can already see many readers, and fellow contributors (Rocco Pendola, for one) cringing. But that's okay; I, too, cringe when I see what investors are sometimes willing to pay for shiny objects. CRM data by YCharts Don't get me wrong, there may be value in these companies at some point, but not at these prices. Where will the Super Six be trading at this time next year as an equally weighted portfolio? My guess is lower than now. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @JonMHellerCFA This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV