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I Always Double Down on 11

I always double down on 11 when I play blackjack. (That is, when the rules of the table cooperate; occasionally, doubling down on 11 isn't optimal, depending on the number of decks, the count, various rules, etc.)

In blackjack, you, the casino and any other players all begin with two cards each. The casino only displays one of the cards. Your score is the sum of the values on your cards, with face cards counting as 10, and aces as 11 or 1. The goal is to reach a higher total than the casino without exceeding 21.

I don't know if I will win any given hand when dealt 11, and I know I won't win them all.

Most importantly, I know my probability of winning is greater than 50%. Anything less than 50% is a negative expectancy, and anything over is positive. When expectancy is in your favor, you want reasonably high risk exposure. You may win or lose any given hand, but over the course of your investing lifetime, you can anticipate your overall results to align closely with expectancy.

Wall Street doesn't give free drinks or comp a meal like Vegas, but in many ways, investing is amazingly similar to blackjack. Decisions are made based on incomplete information, and it's up to you to know what any given expectancy is.

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