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[video] Federal Reserve Taper Will Wait Until 2014

The video this transcript is based on appeared on December 18.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Federal Reserve won't taper its economic stimulus program in December, Ronald Gelok Associates' Ronald Gelok tells TheStreet's Joe Deaux.


Joe Deaux:
The Federal Reserve makes its policy-making statement later this afternoon. One person who doesn't believe that they will taper the economic stimulus program is Ronald Gelok of Ronald Gelok & Associates. Ronald why not?

Ronald Gelok:
Well Joe I'll tell you. If you think about it, Janet Yellen has clearly indicated that she's going to be tying the tapering to improvement in unemployment and while we've seen improvement recently, it's not that we've seen three months of consistent improvement. So I don't see it happening immediately, I think it's going to happen in 2014.

Joe Deaux:
Okay so then why do you think we shouldn't taper now or why won't we taper> It seems like things are going pretty well, there's a lot of good economic data out there.

Ronald Gelok:
Yeah, I think market confidence is really key and I think if the tapering occurred too fast and too soon it could release and the market into a tailspin. I think one thing that's really also being overlooked is recently the Chinese have signaled that they're gonna be buying less of our debt. So if that happens, I just don't see the Fed tapering immediately. I could be wrong but I think it's gonna be next year.

Joe Deaux:
So you think a pullback by the Chinese purchasing US debt and the federal reserve pulling back at the same time would

Ronald Gelok:
It be too much too fast on the market, backwards rapidly.

Joe Deaux:
So final point here, where, why do you think March, do you think by March we get a whole load more of good economic data?

Ronald Gelok:
Well one thing that the Fed has really shown this year is their ability to watch the data closely and while they've signaled a number of times that their open to doing the tapering, if there's any negative economic data we could be looking at even further than March. March is sort of my best guess right now.

Joe Deaux:
Alright well Ronald Gelok, thanks so much for being with us.

Ronald Gelok:
Okay, thank you Joe.

Written by Joe Deaux in New York.

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