The world will require all forms of energy over the next quarter century to meet a greater than one-third increase in demand that will be driven by population growth, improved living standards and expanded urbanization, according to
Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
, which was released today.
“Understanding global energy trends is absolutely critical for effective energy policy,” said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM). “The world depends on safe, reliable and affordable energy development to support economic growth and our modern way of life.”
In its annual forecast, ExxonMobil projects that future energy needs - expected to be about 35 percent higher in 2040 than 2010 - will be supported by more efficient energy-saving practices and technologies, increased use of less-carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables as well as the continued development of technology advances to develop new energy sources. Without gains in efficiency, global energy demand could have risen by more than 100 percent.
Driving increased energy demand is anticipated population growth that will reach nearly 9 billion in 2040 from about 7 billion today, and a projected doubling of the global economy - at an annual growth rate of nearly 3 percent - largely in the developing world where rising living standards will continue to lift millions of people out of poverty.
The outlook projects that oil and natural gas will continue to meet about 60 percent of energy needs by 2040. Liquid fuels - gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil - will remain the energy of choice for most types of transportation because they offer a unique combination of affordability, availability, portability and high energy density.
An expected 25 percent increase in demand for oil, led by increased commercial transportation activity, will be met through technology advances that enable deep-water production and development of oil sands and tight oil.