Sheffield's not all that concerned about demand either, meaning he doesn't think that the supply in the country or in the world will overrun demand any time soon.
To me this is the fulcrum energy issue when it comes to investing in oil and gas, not Keystone, not natural gas vs. coal and not even natural gas exporting. The latter have both become polemical and political, like taper-no taper, just more Washington parlor games at work. We already know that Cheniere (LNG) and perhaps Dominion (D) will be the only two really practical exporters of natural gas because they have the old infrastructure from when we were going to import it and therefore it isn't too costly to turn them into export facilities. Keystone's been mooted by rail, as you knew it would be because President Obama wasn't going to say "yes" and the oil men aren't that stupid as to wait for him to do anything.
But if Sheffield is right, then you buy Pioneer, Cimarex (XEC), Noble (NBL), Continental (CLR), Anadarko (APC) and a host of others. If Papa is right, you simply have to hope for takeovers or switch to natural-gas stocks, betting that the exporting that will start in 2015 and the desire of the EPA to shut all coal plants puts a $4 floor on natural gas.
Where do I come out? I think Papa's too negative, but Sheffield's too positive. Our oil fields are the envy of the world right now, which means the envy of the international companies that want in and will scoop up all of these companies if they have to. My argument's buttressed by the fact that the domestic oil price didn't collapse, but instead converged. I say buy 'em, not sell 'em, because oil in this country's not plummeting and that's the real tale of the tape.Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long Noble. Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 7:44 a.m. EST on Real Money on Dec. 11.
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