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Global Growth Should Surprise To The Upside In 2014: CIBC Forecast

TORONTO, Dec. 11, 2013 /CNW/ - Rising equity prices are signaling better times ahead for investors but firmer global growth will depend on central banks keeping interest rates steady in 2014, notes a new report from CIBC World Markets Inc.

"Equity markets are sensing it, and this time, they're right. Global growth should finally surprise on the high side in 2014," says Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC. "A year of 4 per cent global growth is hardly spectacular, but will be a point faster than 2013, and a half-point above the last IMF forecast.

"Typically, upside surprises in growth bring higher bond yields. But the causation also goes the other way: at a still-fragile point in the cycle, easy monetary policy is a necessary condition for growth to accelerate. Central bankers in North America, Europe and Japan, each in their own way, are going to ask markets to give low rates a chance."

Canada: Better in 2014 but no home run

Amid a rising tide of global growth, Canada will be "waiting for a helping hand from abroad" to push its economy forward in 2014, say Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal and Senior Economist Emanuella Enenajor.  "Business spending and exports should accelerate, but with consumer spending, homebuilding and government outlays all set to underwhelm, growth of 2.3 per cent in 2014 will trail the U.S. pace."

Fortunately for investors, stronger global growth is giving the Canadian equity market more room to run. "Our top-down model points to a 12 per cent gain in corporate earnings for 2014," says Mr. Shenfeld. "Within the equity market, what hasn't played well in the past few years should now outperform." That includes equities tied to global growth such as base metals and energy stocks.

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