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Ulta Salon, Krispy Kreme, Express Lead Retailers to Earnings Woodshed

Big Lots (BIG) ($32.47 vs. $38.96 on Tuesday) missed EPS estimates by 8 cents reporting a loss of 16 cents a share premarket on Nov. 6. The buy rated stock fell to a low of $31.52 ending the week down 16.7% since Dec. 3. The close-out retailer of merchandise and toys is now 7.3% undervalued and is still up a modest 8.6% over the last 12 months and gapped below its 200-day SMA at $35.70. My quarterly pivot is $36.41 with a semiannual risky level at $44.47.

Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) ($51.31 vs. $55.59 Nov. 29) missed EPS estimates by 19 cents earning 56 cents a share in the afterhours on Tuesday. The buy rated stock fell to a low of $49.28 on Wednesday staying above its 200-day SMA at $49.12 ending the week down 7.7% since Nov. 29. The food distributor and restaurant chain is 19.1% overvalued and still up 27.9% over the last 12 months. My semiannual value level is $48.72 with a weekly pivot at $52.63 and quarterly risky level at $59.24. 

Express ($19.57 vs. $24.61 on Nov. 29) missed EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 23 cents a share premarket on Wednesday. The buy rated stock was upgraded to strong buy after the stock plunged 21.1% from Nov. 29 to $18.58 well below its 200-day SMA at $20.99. The specialty retailer of men's and women's apparel is just 1.1% overvalued and is still up 36.9% over the last 12 months. My quarterly value level at $19.48 becomes a pivot with weekly and monthly risky levels at $23.41 and $26.75.

Five Below  (FIVE) ($45.29 vs. $50.49 on Tuesday) matched EPS estimates earning 5 cents a share in the afterhours on Thursday. The buy rated stock which closed Nov. 5 below its 50-day SMA at $49.27 plunged further on Nov. 6 to a day's low at $45.00 well above its 200-day SMA at $41.54 ending the week down 10.3% from Tuesday. The specialty retailer of merchandise for teens and pre-teens is still up 30.5% over the last 12 months. My quarterly value level is $39.53 with a monthly pivot at $47.64 and weekly risky level at $54.56.

Krispy Kreme ($19.97 vs. $25.38 on Nov. 29) matched EPS estimates earning 16 cents a share in the afterhours on Dec. 2. The buy rated stock was upgraded to strong buy as it gapped below its 50-day SMA at $23.59 trading down to $19.57 on Tuesday staying above its 200-day SMA at 18.70 ending the week down 21.3% from Nov.29. The iconic donut maker is 11.9% overvalued and is still up a strong 120.4% over the last 12 months. My quarterly value level is $17.20 with a weekly risky level at $24.38.

Ulta Salon ($93.76 vs. $125.01 on Tuesday) missed EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 72 cents a share in the afterhours on Thursday. The buy rated stock was upgraded to strong buy as it gapped below its 200-day SMA at $102.12 to a low of $91.70 on Dec. 6 ending the week down 25% from Tuesday. The beauty and salon products company is now 15.3% undervalued and is down 7.7% over the last 12 months. My semiannual pivot is 104.65 with a semiannual risky level at $121.59.

Zumiez ZUMZ ($25.57 vs. $27.53 on Tuesday) matched EPS estimates earning 46 cents a share in the after hours on Thursday. The buy rated stock already fell below its 200-day SMA at $27.95 on Dec. 2 and traded to a week's low at $25.05 on Friday ending the week down 7.1%. The retailer of action related apparel and footwear is 12.7% undervalued and is still up 22.1% over the last 12 months. This week's risky level is $29.08.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com
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