Entry of new mortgage companies would increase the reliance on Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Association OTCBB:FNMA and Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Association OTCBB:FNMA, reckons Rafferty Capital.
Richard X. Bove of Rafferty Capital Markets LLC also highlights the fact that the public issues from the new mortgage companies would perform well only during the initial years.
Entry of new mortgage companiesPointing to a recent article in Wall Street Journal, Richard X. Bove notes that in the rising housing market, a number of new mortgage companies are taking market share, as the big banks give ground. He believes a few of these mortgage companies would make public offerings and most likely, these offerings would be well received. Taking a cue from history, Richard believes that the stocks from these new mortgage companies should perform nicely for two to three years, and the mortgage companies too will grow meaningfully in size. However, he cautions, as the cycle wears down, these new mortgage companies could face the fortunes of hundreds of their predecessors before fading away. Also see: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Wind Down Means 100% Loss For Stakeholders
Enhanced role of GSEsRichard X. Bove of Rafferty Capital Markets LLC points out that the new mortgage bankers would need the services of secondary market companies. Hence he emphasizes that there will be growing need for a continuation of Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Association OTCBB:FNMA and Freddie Mac / Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp OTCBB:FMCC. Bove thus concludes that with the mortgage market shifting from a bank dominated market to a mortgage banker dominated market, the need for the two GSEs would witness exponential expansion.
Richard's recent defense for the GSEsInterestingly , a couple days back, arguing against Jonathan Laing's recent column in Barron's, Richard X. Bove emphasized that the maintenance of the GSEs saved the U.S. housing industry, as 90% of the mortgages purchased in the secondary market in the recent years were made by these two giants. He stressed that if the GSEs had been put into bankruptcy in September 2008, there would have been no secondary market, no fixed rate mortgages and no 20 to 30 year terms on mortgages.
Reduced regulationBove believes the shift to a mortgage banker-led mortgage industry would lead to a meaningful reduction in regulation. He points out that these companies are not regulated and they are not audited on a regular basis by one of the many banking regulators.
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